Forex News 10:12 GBP / USD retoma 1.2600 lidar, mas falta impulso O GBP / USD par construído em seu impulso de recuperação inicial e agora inverteu perdas menores de sexta-feira para voltar atrás marginalmente acima 1.2600 lidar. Depois de passar a maior parte da sessão asiática naquela manivela, o casal pegou novas propostas durante a sessão européia antecipada, em meio a uma ação de preço moderado do dólar. O ímpeto, entretanto, faltou convicção como os investors olham agora para decisões do banco central de ambos, dos EU e do Reino Unido mais tarde durante esta semana. O Federal Reserve dos EUA é amplamente esperado para aumentar as taxas de juros por 25 bps na quinta-feira, enquanto o Banco da Inglaterra. Na quinta-feira, deverá manter inalterada sua atual posição em matéria de política monetária. Enquanto isso, as declarações de taxas acompanhantes e a subseqüente conferência de imprensa serão analisadas para novas idéias sobre as perspectivas de política monetária de curto prazo dos bancos centrais e ajudar os investidores a determinar a trajetória do par no curto prazo. Na ausência de grandes lançamentos de mercado na segunda-feira, o par levaria pistas do sentimento mais amplo em torno do dólar dos EUA, que continuaria a ser impulsionado pelas expectativas sobre o ritmo da taxa Fed-hike no próximo ano. Níveis técnicos para assistir A seguir através de compra de interesse, levando a um impulso acima de 1.2620 resistência (sexta-feira alta), é provável desencadear um rally de cobertura curta imediatamente para 1.2670-75 resistência intermediária em-route 1.2700 marca figura redonda. No lado negativo, a fraqueza abaixo do apoio de baixa sessão perto nível 1.2575 é susceptível de arrastar o par de volta para um apoio importante perto de 1.2550 região, que se quebrado pode acelerar o slide para 1.2500 marca psicológica. 10:04 USD / JPY lance acima de 113.84 Commerzbank Em vista de Karen Jones, Chefe de Análise Técnica da FICC no Commerzbank, o par tende a ficar acima de 113,84. Ldquo USD / JPY tem erodido seu ma de 100 semanas em 114.74, e parece já estar retomando seu movimento ascendente. A ação de preço da semana passada manteve-se rigidamente acima do suporte Imoku 1, atualmente em 113,84 eo mercado é imediatamente oferecido acima aqui. Observamos a contagem 13 no gráfico de 60 minutos e pode ver um pequeno mergulho mais baixo muito perto termrdquo. LdquoAbove aqui também temos o retracement 61,8 do movimento 2015-2016) em 116,00 e estamos permitindo uma consolidação de curto prazo. Acima de aqui o alvo 120.00 / 120.10, o retracement 78.6 do movimento para baixo de 2015rdquo. 10:02 A inflação (IHPC) de Dinamarca permanece em 0.1 em novembro 09:59 ECB: Maior longevidade, exibility e assimetria no APP Goldman Sachs Lasse Holboell Nielsen, analista de pesquisa em Goldman Sachs, observa que o ECB em seu último encontro Anunciou a continuidade de seu Programa de Aquisição de Ativos (APP) por mais nove meses, de abril de 2017 a dezembro de 2017 (ldquoor além, se necessário, e em qualquer caso .. até um ajuste sustentado no caminho de ination compatível com seu ination aimrdquo ). LdquoO ritmo mensal de compra de ativos vai abrandar a partir de abril de 2017 para 60 bilhões de euros, a partir do ritmo atual de 80 bilhões de euros por mês. Isto é mais baixo do que nós esperamos. Na conferência de imprensa do borne-reunião, o presidente Draghi enfatizou então a longevidade do programa da compra do recurso. Ele mencionou várias vezes que o lsquotaperingrsquo (que ele dened como um caminho gradual de redução para zero compras) não tinha sido discutido durante a reunião. Mais especificamente, Draghi afirmou que o Conselho do BCE optou por uma prorrogação de nove meses em 60 mil milhões de euros por mês numa extensão mais curta de seis meses a um ritmo mais rápido de 80 mil milhões de euros por mês. O Sr. Draghi também enfatizou que o BCE procurou manter um mercado sustentado através da prorrogação da duração do programa. O Conselho do BCE introduziu uma maior flexibilidade na implementação de compras de ativos, introduzindo a possibilidade de aumentar o ritmo e / ou a duração do programa. APP se as perspectivas financeiras se tornassem menos favoráveis ou se as condições financeiras se apertassem excessivamente. A nova exibilidade no programa foi denominada assimétrica. Em contrapartida com o sinal explícito de aumento das compras caso as condições se deteriorassem, Draghi descreveu qualquer perspectiva de se mover abaixo do ritmo de compra mensal de US $ 60 bilhões, como ldquofar, longe. Em termos das perspectivas macroeconômicas mais amplas, as previsões de pessoal do BCE permaneceram essencialmente inalteradas De setembro. A (nova) previsão do BCE para o ano de 2019 foi de 1,7. O Sr. Draghi caracterizou essa previsão como sendo realmente condizente com o objetivo do ECBrsquos (IHPC ination ldquobelow, mas próximo de 2pardquo), proporcionando assim uma racionalidade macroeconômica para a extensão da compra de ativos. Com os últimos anúncios mantemos nossa previsão de que o APP Continuará até 2018 (a um ritmo progressivamente reduzido dos 60 mil milhões de euros por mês que veremos de Abril a Dezembro do próximo ano).thquo ldquoNós mantém a nossa opinião de que o primeiro aumento da taxa do BCE permanece distante. Não esperamos a primeira alta até o final de 2019, um pouco mais tarde do que os preços atuais do mercado. 09h53 EURCAD: Os osciladores de tendência de curto, médio e longo prazo estão se movimentando no alinhamento de baixa - o Scotiabank EURCAD fechou a quinta semana consecutiva perdida Em seu nível mais baixo em quase 18 meses, conforme observado pelos Analistas do Scotiabank. LdquoThe cruz teve um muito poucos semanasmdashreversing fortemente de 1.50, caindo abaixo do apoio principal da tendência no 1.44s baixo e perdendo a longo prazo, sustentação do retracement em 1.4203. Como observado anteriormente, as reversões semanais e mensais de urso foram sinalizadas pelos movimentos de preços de Novemberrsquos ea perda de suporte em 1,42 implicou uma queda para o retracement de 76,4 em 1,3755mdash que parece acessível no curto prazo próximo. Além disso, há algum apoio em torno de 1,35, mas pouco, grande apoio até a área de 1,30. Nós não estamos excluindo o risco de o movimento de urso se estende para 1,30 / 1,35 nos próximos meses. Os osciladores de tendência a curto, médio e longo prazo estão a avançar lentamente para o alinhamento de baixa, o que ajudará e contribuirá para o deslizamento e limitar o escopo para os rali de contra-tendência de EUR. 09:43 ECB: O começo do fim do QE Commerzbank Depois do BCE Optou por prolongar suas compras de títulos em nove meses e para baixar o volume para 60 bilhões de euros, os investidores estão perguntando se isso marca o início do processo de saída das notas de compra de títulos, explica Joerg Kraemer, economista-chefe do Commerzbank. LsquoEl BCE sabe que a partir do início de 2018 em diante terá comprado um terço dos títulos do governo alemão e italiano. Teria então atingido o seu limite máximo auto-imposto, que por razões legais não pode simplesmente elevar, como sublinhou Draghi. Então, em algum momento, será, em qualquer caso, ser forçado a diminuir as compras. Assim, faz sentido tentar uma redução moderada no volume de compra mensal. O momento é bom nisso, com a tentativa de reformas do Senado na Itália falhando na segunda-feira, títulos do governo italiano têm provado altamente resilient. rdquo ldquo Para garantir que eles permanecem assim, Draghi tomou medidas na última conferência de imprensa para tranquilizar as pessoas. Primeiro, ele anunciou que, se necessário, o volume de compras seria aumentado novamente. Em segundo lugar, o banco estendeu o conjunto de obrigações elegíveis, afirmando que, no futuro, poderia formalmente também comprar títulos com um prazo residual de apenas um ano. Isso aumenta o volume de títulos elegíveis para compra e reduz matematicamente a porcentagem de títulos que detém. Estimamos agora que o BCE atingirá o limite máximo seis meses mais tarde. E, finalmente, o banco criou a opção de também comprar títulos quando seu rendimento está abaixo da taxa de depósito. O BCE fez tudo o que podia para tranquilizar o mercado depois de reduzir o seu volume de compra. Em 2018, no entanto, será forçado a reduzir as compras gradualmente se não for para exceder o limite legal. No entanto, isso não significa o fim da abordagem monetária muito generosa do banco. As causas da crise da dívida pública são, afinal, mais aguda do que nunca, e há uma ameaça de que ela re-emergentes. Por conseguinte, a zona do euro não pode se estabelecer. O crescimento permanece instável e, contrariamente ao que o BCE espera, a inflação subjacente não deverá registar um aumento sustentado. Como resultado, espera-se que o banco adote contramedidas agressivas, uma vez que é forçado a encerrar suas compras de títulos, provavelmente em 2018. Poderia, por exemplo, oferecer aos bancos comerciais uma proposta de longo prazo com um prazo de cerca de cinco anos. Isso permitiria que os bancos dos países do sul da zona do euro comprassem seus próprios títulos com dinheiro barato do BCE, assumindo o controle do BCE como compradores. Assim, infelizmente, não marca o início do fim de uma política monetária muito distorcida. 09:42 USD / CAD estende a queda, aproxima-se de 1.3100 O dólar canadense permanece em uma moda firme contra seu par americano na segunda-feira, arrastando USD / CAD para a vizinhança do identificador 1.3100, baixos sessões frescas. USD / CAD mais baixo em ganhos de WTI O CAD está extraindo o apoio extra do rally nos preços de óleo cru, com o tambor de West Texas Intermediate que pairam sobre topos frescos de 17 meses acima da marca de 54.00 após o acordo recente entre produtores não-OPEP Petróleo em cerca de 560K bpd. Além disso, o dólar está negociando praticamente inalterado até hoje, em meio à crescente cautela, à luz da próxima reunião do FOMC e da probabilidade de uma alta de 25 pb na quarta-feira. Além disso, e conforme demonstrado pelo último relatório da CFTC, os shorts líquidos especulativos CAD permaneceram na área de baixos multi-semana, enquanto o interesse aberto caiu para o nível mais baixo desde meados de outubro na semana até 06 de dezembro. Como de escrever o par está perdendo 0.52 em 1.3117 de frente para o próximo suporte em 1.3063 (sma de 200 dias) à frente de 1.3002 (baixo Oct.19) e, finalmente, 1.2996 (baixo 29 de setembro). Por outro lado, uma ruptura acima de 1.3193 (sma de 100 dias) abriria a porta para 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo da queda de 2016) e depois 1.3357 (alto Dec.5). 09:40 GBP / JPY voltando para 146.00 identificador O cruzamento GBP / JPY foi visto construindo sobre o seu impulso break-out recente acima da resistência SMA muito importante de 200 dias e agora está avançando mais perto de máximos de mais de 6 meses tocados na semana passada . Atualmente negociando em torno de 145.80 região, pico de sessão de testes, a cruz estendeu a sua trajetória de alta no curto prazo, e depois de avançar por oito semanas consecutivas, ganhou nova tração na segunda-feira em meio ao risco prevalecente no clima após o acordo de fim de semana entre a OPEP E não membros da OPEP. Mesmo a partir da perspectiva técnica, a negociação sustentada acima de 200 dias da SMA, pela primeira vez em 2016, é sugestivo de uma explosão bullish e, portanto, aumentou as possibilidades de continuação da par apreciando mover no curto prazo. Níveis técnicos a observar Na parte superior, a semana passada, a alta de vários meses perto de 146,00 é provável que atue como resistência imediata acima da qual o par parece dart para 147,00 marca de figura redonda antes de eventualmente se dirigir para a sua próxima grande resistência perto 147,95-148,00 região. Por outro lado, 145.00 marca psicológica agora se torna apoio imediato para defender, que se quebrado pode desencadear uma correção slide volta para 200 dias SMA apoio perto 143.30 região, com 144.40 e 144,00 marca agindo como níveis de apoio intermediário. 09:30 O Banco do Japão (BOJ) deverá atualizar a visão econômica na semana que vem, refletindo uma visão econômica otimista. Fontes da Reuters também observaram que os oficiais do Banco de Moçambique pensam que o comércio global está saindo da crise e eles parecem encorajados por sinais de recuperação do consumo privado japonês. 09:28 USDCAD mais fraco mas declínio talvez perdendo momentum - Scotiabank Analistas no Scotiabank observa que o USDCAD mantém um tom suave após duas semanas de perdas estáveis. Os gráficos de curto prazo sugerem que o slide USDrsquos está perdendo momentum (uma cunha descendente no gráfico horário e pequeno, no intervalo dentro do gráfico de 6 horas), mas há scantmdashas em nomdashsign de uma inversão na tendência diária mais baixa no momento . Spot perdeu apoio importante na área de baixa / média 1,32 esta semana, mas sinais de uma desaceleração no declínio está chegando um pouco à frente do retrocesso de 76,4 do rally de outubro / novembro em 1.3145.rdquo ldquoNós nota importante, apoio a longo prazo abaixo Aqui em 1.3090 / 00, onde a base da tendência mais ampla do dólar USD atualmente reside. Os sinais de momentum da tendência a curto prazo são alinhados bearishly para o USD, sugerindo que os USD podem esforçar-se melhorar significativamente no momento. Nós pensamos que o USD necessita voltar acima de 1.3240 / 50 a fim estabilizar ou melhorar de here. rdquo 09:24 NZD / USD que alveja 0.7200 esta semana - Westpac O dólar ESTÁLIDO permite NZrsquos fundamentos fortes (referenciado por RBNZ Regulador Wheeler) a Vêm à frente do mercado de NZD / USD, alvejar 0.7200 esta semana sugere Imre Speizer, analista de pesquisa em Westpac. LdquoDairy preços são uma importante influência a médio prazo sobre o NZD, mas apenas uma fraca influência a curto prazo. Ainda assim, o aumento de 95 em WMP desde fevereiro é significativo, resultando até agora em um aumento no pagamento de leite de agricultor de 4,25 / kg para 6,00. Tudo o mais constante, os preços mais elevados dos produtos lácteos devem, eventualmente, aumentar o NZD. rdquo ldquoTechnically, pode haver alguma resistência a curto prazo em torno de 0,7200, que é suporte de tendência anterior. No entanto, a dinâmica diária tem virado para positivo, por isso os riscos são ainda mais elevados durante a semana ahead. rdquo 09:20 comerciantes JPY colocar seus shorts on - Scotiabank CFTC relatório de posicionamento cobrindo dados até terça-feira 6 de dezembro destacou o fato de que os investidores especulativos tornaram curto líquido (Mal) JPY, pela primeira vez em 2016, observa a equipe de pesquisa do Scotiabank. LdquoThis weekrsquos atualização sugere que os comerciantes de futuros fizeram pouco mais, mas pilha em shorts JPY esta semana. No agregado, o sentimento mais amplo é o USD mais otimista desde o início do ano. Posicionamento geral longo o USD subiu USD3.4bn na semana até terça-feira para alcançar USD29.7bn, a maior aposta de touro sobre o USD desde janeiro. rdquo ldquoThe JPY comércio representaram todos os investidores de aumento que foram apenas pequeno JPY curto na semana passada, mas levantou Posicionando-se agressivamente até terça-feira para estabelecer um short líquido de USD3.7bnmdashan aumento na semana de 34k contratos de basicamente plana. O movimento de balanço de baixa nos últimos três meses é o maior em quatro anos e reflete a acentuada deterioração do sentimento de JPY como EU-Japão spreads de longo prazo alargar para o maior prémio de rendimento para o USD desde 2010.rdquo ldquo sentimento EUR foi mais Ou menos estáveis na semana os shorts líquidos do EUR permanecem significativos e representam ainda a aposta a mais grande do urso única em USD ea exposição curta líquida foi aparada apenas modestamente que funciona na reunião de ECB. Net GBP cortos foram cortados ligeiramente esta semana e enquanto net shorts foram construídos no NZD e CHF, a mudança e posicionamento líquido é minor. rdquo ldquo CAD sentimento permanece em grande parte negativa exposição líquida foi reduzida muito ligeiramente na semana como tanto brutos shorts e longos FOMC - Key Os mercados asiáticos abriram a semana Big em uma nota de alta, com o risco de humor prevalente em toda a Ásia em meio ao aumento dos preços do petróleo, Na esteira do acordo de saída de petróleo de weekrsquos alcançado entre OPEP e produtores não-OPEP. Assim, o iene emergiu o mais fraco entre os fluxos não-existentes do refúgio seguro, quando a consolidação do upside do dólar de EU baseada larga conduziu movimentos através do espaço do fx. Olhando para o futuro, a decisão de taxa de juros do FOMC continua a ser o evento tão esperado e altamente influente desta semana, que vai definir o tom para os mercados para o equilíbrio deste mês feriado-diluído. Entretanto, os mercados irão tomar sugestões do despejo de dados chinês, UK CPI, vendas de varejo dos EUA e discurso BOE Carneyrsquos. Mais tarde hoje, temos um data-empty EUR e calendário dos EUA, e, portanto, sentimento do mercado de petróleo-driven continuará a influenciar fx pares. O petróleo é muito mais alto no início da Ásia, na parte de trás da notícia de fim de semana com uma diferença de 52,00 e atingiu um máximo de 54,31 em WTI tão longe. O Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica da Nova Zelândia (NZIER) publicou uma previsão dos economistas para a economia da Nova Zelândia na segunda-feira, com as projeções de crescimento e inflação revisadas para cima. As Câmaras de Comércio Britânicas UKrsquos (BCC) atualizaram suas 207 previsões de crescimento para a economia do Reino Unido, embora alertaram que perspectivas de crescimento mais elevadas são insustentáveis na esteira da incerteza sobre a relação da UE com o Reino Unido . O Wall Street Journal (WSJ) publicou uma história no fim de semana, observando que o banco central japonês, o BOJ, poderá em breve ter que recorrer ao aperto pela primeira vez desde 2007 Na sequência das expectativas de inflação mais altas da presidência de Trumprsquos. O BBG Bloomberg publicou um artigo nesta segunda-feira, observando que o Banco do Japão (BOJ) tecnicamente manteve sua meta para o aumento anual das tenências de títulos do governo em 80 trilhões de ienes (699 bilhões), Há sinais de que a compra pode vir mais perto de 70 trilhões de ienes. O foco principal para o dia adiantado EUR / USD sob a pressão, olhos em 1.0505 ndash Commerzbank Karen Jones, chefe da análise técnica de FICC em Commerzbank, anotou o par remanesce para uma re-visita aos pontos baixos recentes em 1.0505. Um conselheiro do Banco Popular da China (PBOC), Sheng Songcheng, cruzou os fios nos últimos minutos, via Bloomberg, observando que uma subida das taxas de juros é improvável na China. Outra onda de repatriamento para o USD - Westpac As eleições presidenciais nos EUA deram um novo ímpeto a outro feriado de repatriamento para os lucros corporativos dos EUA, mantido em Washington, e esperam que os EUA e os USD sejam os principais beneficiários, 2018. Fed caminhadas de dezembro: uma coisa anual - Rabobank Analistas do Rabobank disse que parece que podemos adicionar a caminhada anual Fedrsquos para o calendário como um evento recorrente em dezembro. 09:04 AUD / USD recupera-se acima do nível 0.7450 O par AUD / USD pegou novos lances no nível mais baixo e recuperou mais de 25 pips do nível baixo da sessão perto da região 0.7430. Atualmente negociando em torno de 0,7455-60 região, fim de semana acordo entre a OPEP e membros não-OPEP desencadear uma nova onda de risco sobre o sentimento em mercados financeiros globais e é visto apoiando o tom de oferta envolvendo moedas mais arriscadas / de alto rendimento - como o Aussie. Além disso, uma ação de preço moderado do dólar, como os mercados esperam cautelosamente para a decisão de política monetária do Fed na quarta-feira, é mais favorável à recuperação do par no primeiro dia de negociação da semana. Com uma agenda econômica relativamente vazia. O sentimento mais amplo do risco de mercado permaneceria um determinante chave do movimento do par em segunda-feira. No entanto, as expectativas firmes de que o Fed certamente elevaria as taxas de juros na quarta-feira, juntamente com as crescentes especulações de um rápido ciclo de reajuste no próximo ano, provavelmente restringirão qualquer movimento forte e o par poderá permanecer confinado dentro de sua faixa de curto prazo . Níveis técnicos a observar Em um movimento sustentado acima do nível 0.7465 (pico de sessão), o par é provável que faça uma nova tentativa de conquistar 0.7500 marca psicológica acima do qual o momento pode se estender para a muito importante resistência de 200 dias SMA perto da região 0,7530. No lado negativo, a quebra decisiva abaixo de 0.7440-30 suporte (sessão baixa) parece arrastar o par imediatamente para 0.7415-10 região à frente de 0,7400 marca de figura redonda. 09:02 AUD / USD deve testar o 0.7577 - Westpac AUD / USD deve testar o 100dma em 0,7577 na próxima semana, ajudado por um USD mais suave reunião pós-FOMC espera Sean Callow, Analista de Pesquisa em Westpac. As cotações de ldquoAUD / USD diminuíram de forma tardia, consistentes com o apoio dos principais preços das commodities (minério de ferro spot gt80, carvão de coque 300), mas o lado positivo é limitado por dados domésticos sem brilho, volatilidade dos fluxos de capital asiáticos e os dollarrsquos norte - Fed rate hike. rdquo ldquoQ3 foi fraco em toda a placa, mas a construção de casas e gastos públicos, pelo menos, deve recuperar no quarto trimestre. Outra leitura pobre dos trabalhos reforçaria o tema doméstico sombrio. No entanto AUD tem absorvido más notícias recentemente com isolamento da falta de desejo do mercado de preço no risco RBA taxa de corte, dada a sua paciência sobre a inflação eo mood. rdquo global 09:01 Índice de Preços ao Consumidor da Roménia caiu de -0,4-0 -0,7 em 08:59 USD / JPY deve subir para 120 até o final de 2017 - A Nomura Research Team da Nomura explica que, se o Fed aumentar as taxas em dezembro e realizar dois aumentos de taxa adicionais em 2017, como economistas da Nomurarsquos esperam, o USD / JPY provavelmente Chegar a 120 até ao final de 2017. LdquoUSD tenderia a se fortalecer mais na segunda metade do ano, quando saberíamos mais sobre as políticas fiscais do governo Trump. Ao mesmo tempo, há uma incerteza considerável sobre as medidas econômicas dos Estados Unidos em 2018, e neste momento esperamos um nível neutro de 114 no final de 2018. Para USD / JPY ficar acima de 120, acreditamos que a economia dos EUA, que já está entrando na última fase de sua recuperação, tem que mostrar um aumento significativo na produtividade. rdquo ldquo BOJrsquos controle de curva de rendimento para apoiar JPY depreciação Embora desempenhando um papel secundário , Fundamentos Japanrsquos também deve apoiar um aumento em USD / JPY, em nossa opinião. As medidas de controle das curvas de rentabilidade do BOJ têm tido um efeito notável na manutenção das taxas de juros do iene em níveis estáveis / baixos, mesmo com a elevação dos rendimentos em todo o mundo, e à medida que a diferença entre os rendimentos se amplie. Se USD / JPY se aproxima de 120, a taxa de inflação japonesa provavelmente subirá para o intervalo médio 1, possivelmente estimulando as expectativas no mercado de que o BOJ reduziria suas compras de ativos. No entanto, não esperamos que a inflação ultrapasse 2 como uma tendência subjacente, eo BOJ é improvável que assumir uma postura hawkish durante o mandato do governador Kurodarsquos (que termina em abril de 2018).rdquo 08:52 EUR / USD sob pressão, os olhos em 1.0505 O Commerzbank Karen Jones, Chefe de Análise Técnica da FICC no Commerzbank, observou que o par permanece pronto para uma re-visita aos mínimos recentes em 1.0505. Ldquo EUR / USD na semana passada brevemente spiked até 1.0875, esta era a ação de preço exaustiva e atenção voltou a apoiar em 1.0505 e 1.0467, a baixa recente e baixa de março. Este continua a ser um grande ponto de ruptura para a paridade e beyondrdquo. LdquoAbove 1.0875 iria iniciar um retracement mais profundo para 1.0910 então 1.1000 (isto não é favorecido) e enquanto seria suficiente para atrasar nossa perspectiva de baixa, é não seria suficiente para negá-lo. Um conselheiro do Banco Popular da China (PBOC), Sheng Songcheng, cruzou os fios nos últimos minutos, via Bloomberg, observando que uma subida das taxas de juros é improvável na China. Ele acrescentou ainda que o aumento da taxa está pendente de recuperação econômica. Não foram mencionados mais detalhes sobre o mesmo. O ouro rondou os mínimos de 10 meses Após ter registrado cinco semanas consecutivas de perdas, o ouro estendeu sua trajetória descendente recente e caiu para o nível mais baixo em mais de 10 meses na segunda-feira. O metal, entretanto, conseguiu puxar para trás dos pontos baixos da sessão e está negociando atualmente com a fraqueza ligeira em torno da região 1157. As expectativas firmes de uma ação eventual do hike da taxa do fed esta semana têm reprimido fluxos para o metal precioso non-yielding. Além disso, antecipada taxas de juros mais altas nos EUA tem sido a condução do dólar EU superior e também está pesando sobre commodities denominadas em dólar - como o ouro. Acrescente-se a isso, um acordo de corte de produção de petróleo no fim de semana entre a Opep e um acordo não-OPEP provocou uma nova onda de humor de risco na segunda-feira, o que acabou prejudicando a demanda por ativos seguros tradicionais e fez pouco para deter o movimento de depreciação do metal amarelo . Os investidores aguardam ansiosamente o resultado da segunda reunião de política monetária do Fed, prevista para quarta-feira. A declaração de taxa acompanhante proporcionaria projeções de diretivas para as taxas de juros e números de crescimento, o que ajudaria os investidores a avaliar o ritmo de aperto monetário no próximo ano e determinar a próxima etapa de movimento direcional para o metal precioso. Níveis técnicos para assistir Qualquer tentativa de recuperação agora parece enfrentar a resistência imediata perto do nível 1160 acima do qual o impulso poderia se estender para 1169-70 resistência horizontal na rota 1173-75 área de resistência. No lado negativo, a fraqueza abaixo do apoio de baixa sessão de 1154 parece arrastar a commodity em direção ao suporte 1150 abaixo do qual o metal parece dirigir-se para a área de suporte do teste 1140. 08:35 GBP / USD upside tampado por 1.2600, dados, FOMC eyed A libra esterlina está afixando perdas marginais contra o greenback no início da semana, com GBP / USD que sidelining abaixo do punho 1.2600. GBP / USD aparece apoiado perto .12580 O par está seguindo a ausência generalizada de uma direção clara nos mercados globais, navegando dentro de uma escala estreita e com os ganhos limitados até agora limitados em torno da barreira crítica 1.2600. No futuro, a libra esterlina deve permanecer sob pressão diante da divulgação dos números de inflação para o mês de novembro (terça-feira) e do relatório do mercado de trabalho (quarta-feira), embora o evento mais saliente seja a reunião do FOMC na quarta-feira. Lembre-se de que uma alta de preços de 25 pb parece já estar totalmente com o preço, embora os participantes do mercado mude sua atenção para o caminho da taxa futura e os passos potenciais pelo Federal Reserve no próximo ano. No lado do posicionamento, os shorts especulativos da GBP foram reduzidos ao nível mais baixo desde o início de agosto, enquanto os shorts líquidos recuaram de níveis recorde durante a semana encerrada em 6 de dezembro e de acordo com o último relatório da CFTC. Os níveis de GBP / USD a considerar Ao escrever o par está perdendo 0,02 a 1,2588 e uma quebra abaixo de 1,2545 (baixo Dec.9) iria expor 1.2530 (20 dias sma) e depois 1.2462 (55 dias sma). Por outro lado, o próximo obstáculo alinha em 1.2706 (alta Dec.8) seguido por 1.2767 (100-dia sma) e, finalmente, 1.2776 (alta Dec.6). 08:34 Cazaquistão EnergyMin: 20K bpd corte de produção é token - RTRS ministro da energia do Cazaquistão expressou sua tomada sobre o acordo de corte de produção de petróleo, observando que o corte de produção de 20k bpd acordado com a OPEP é um lsquotokenrsquo, acrescentando que eles não têm planos para limitar a produção Nos projetos de Kashagan, Karachaganak ou Tengiz. Taisuke Tanaka, estrategista do Deutsche Bank, espera que o USD / JPY chegue ao top 120 se as novas previsões de rendimentos dos EUA da DBRSquos pudessem se materializar. LdquoO USD / JPY já atingiu o nível de previsão de 2017 de 115. Nossa previsão revisada de 115 anunciada em 15 de novembro foi baseada em rendimentos de 10 anos de 5 anos e de 2 anos do Tesouro dos EUA de 2,5, 1,75 e 1,25, respectivamente, De junho de 2017. No entanto, e como temos repetidamente mencionado, uma superação adicional é possível, dependendo do grau de autonomia para a macropolítica Sr. Trump comprometeu-se a. rdquo ldquoNossa equipe economista aumentou ainda mais as previsões de crescimento econômico dos EUA, para 3,0 Para 2017 e 3.3 para 2018. Eles afirmam que, a curto prazo, o crescimento provavelmente será consideravelmente acima de 4 em uma base trimestral, e poderia chegar a 5 por 12 trimestres. Ele mesmo diz que essas previsões são conservadoras e que, se provarem que o PIB dos EUA está incorreto, estariam no caminho para superar nossas expectativas. O nosso estrategista de taxas de juros dos EUA elevou suas projeções de rendimento do Tesouro dos EUA para 3,60, 2,75 e 1,30 Acima) a partir de junho de 2017. A partir de 15 de novembro, assumimos um rápido rally impulsionado pelo mercado Trump e definir nossa previsão de USD / JPY em 115 baseados principalmente em cinco anos de rendimento. No entanto, o cenário que estas novas previsões de rendimento dos EUA poderia materializar sugere que o USD / JPY chegue ao topo dos 120 (embora ainda não tenhamos revisado oficialmente a nossa previsão USD / JPY).rdquo ldquo Esta semana, procuramos as condições empresariais BoJ Tankan DIs Será anunciado em 14 de Dezembro) para mostrar alguma melhoria após o rally do mercado Trumpdriven, o que confirmaria o sentimento do mercado favorável ao risco. Espera-se que o FOMC decida sobre um aumento das taxas em 14 de dezembro, e isso também seria um claro apoio ao USD / JPY. No entanto, mesmo essa alta de preços pelo Fed não parece particularmente importante para o atual USD / JPY trading. O mercado já tem fatorado em vários aumentos de taxa ao longo dos próximos 1-2 anos, por isso esta semana é antecipada caminhada é apenas um pequeno passo. Ao olhar para o USD / JPY nos próximos meses, precisamos considerar um overshoot e uma correção após o rali rápido. No entanto, a tendência é claramente upward. rdquo 08:29 NZD / JPY par deve cabeça para a próxima resistência em 83,40 - Natixis Research Team na Natixis sugere que as perspectivas NZD / JPY continua favorável, como um canal ascendente permanece em evidência no diário Gráfico e uma bolha ascendente ainda está se desenvolvendo no gráfico semanal. LdquoApós estas condições, o par deve dirigir-se para a resistência seguinte em 83.40 (limite superior do canal descendente no lugar desde dezembro de 2014).rdquo ldquoUma ruptura acima desta resistência iria instilar um novo impulso ascendente, abrindo o caminho para um rebote duradouro para 84.70 (61.8 Fibonacci retracement de 94.08-69.04 onda descendente de dezembro 2014 a junho 2016) antes de 86.30 (faixa superior de Bollinger mensal).rdquo ldquoTake a vantagem de todos os pullbacks para 80.70 comprar o NZD / JPY, com como alvo principal 86.30 (ajustando a perda do batente Abaixo de 79,40).rdquo 08:25 Oil: O primeiro corte nem sempre é o mais profundo - ANZ Philip Borkin, economista sênior da ANZ, observa que em uma jogada surpresa, a Arábia Saudita anunciou sua intenção de cortar a produção de petróleo ainda mais do que o acordado Com os seus homólogos da OPEP no mês passado. LdquoFollowing quente em seguida a um anúncio por um número de países non-OPEC sobre o fim de semana (11 no total, including Rússia e México) para cortar a produção por 558k tambores por o dia, o ministro Saudi do óleo indicou que o ldquoI pode di-lo com o absolute Certeza de que a partir de janeiro 1 wersquore vai cortar e cortar substancialmente para ser inferior ao nível que nos comprometemos em 30 de novembro. Claramente todos os olhos serão sobre como os preços do petróleo tomar esta última notícia, mas teria que pensar que será o preço Que poderia, portanto, ter implicações mais amplas para os gostos da imagem mais ampla das commodities, as moedas das commodities, ações de energia e medidas de mercado de expectativas de inflação para começar a week. rdquo ldquoBut quão significativo um rali estamos falando Bem, o fato de que 1 ) the oil market still has a large inventory overhang to work through 2) shale oil producers continue to wait in the wings for any decent price bounce and 3) history has taught us to be a little skeptical given non-compliance to such agreements, it is hard to see oil prices surging meaningfully higher just yet. rdquo 08:24 Russian OilMin Novak: Oil prices between 50-60/bbl comfortable for Russian budget Russian energy minster Novak is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that the oil - price range between 50-60/bbl is in line with the Russian budget. 08:19 EUR/USD consolidates the Asian recovery ahead of FOMC week The recovery in the EUR/USD pair from near 2016 lows lost legs just shy of 1.0570, with the bulls now struggling hard to retain the bids as we progress towards the European opening bells. EUR/USD back above daily pivot at 1.0544 Currently, EUR/USD turns positive near 1.0560, although finds fresh sellers lurking just ahead of the last. The main currency pair paused its recent losing streak and jumped back on the bids amid an extended phase of bullish consolidation seen in the greenback across the board, after last weekrsquos rally in light of monetary policy divergence tilting in favor of the Fed and the buck. The recovery in the major looks fragile and short-lived as the US dollar is expected to rule the roost going forward, with a 25bps Fed rate hike priced-in by investors. While markets also continue to digest the dovish guidance provided by the ECB last week. Ahead of the FOMC decision due in the second-half of this week, markets will look forward to the German ZEW sentiment and US retail sales data for fresh incentives on the pair. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0607 (5-DMA). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0621 (20-DMA) and from there to 1.0642 (10-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0526 (5-day low) below which 1.0503 (multi-month low) and 1.0456 (March 2015 low) could be tested. 08:16 USDCAD: Buckle up amp get long - TDS Mazen Issa, Senior FX Strategist at TDS, suggests to enter a long USDCAD position enter at 1.3150, target of 1.3650, stop-loss of 1.2900. ldquoSince USDCAD failed to sustain a break above 1.3600 ( 50 Fibo level from 2016 high/lows) on Nov 15th, price action has been notably heavy. We have long viewed the risks around USDCAD tilt higher from a fundamental perspective, but augured for patience despite attractive valuations. We think that turning point is near. rdquo ldquoThe 1.3100/50 area has acted as a key pivot zone for USDCAD. We think a re-test of this area offers a cleaner and more attractive technical entry point reinforced with solid trend-line support to re-establish firm USDCAD longs. While the CAD has been one of the better contained currencies within the G10 complex since the US electionmdasha point that should not be dismissedmdashwe think it will be difficult for the CAD to detether itself from a firm USD backdrop. rdquo ldquoWhile not our base case, we think that another BoC cut remains a non-trivial risk in 2017, and one that could receive consideration by mid-year. Currently, the OIS market is pricing in a modest probability of a rate hike by Q3 next year ( 7bps), which we strongly lean against, though we note a near-term catalyst to change front-end dynamics remains elusive for now. Indeed, our economists apply a subjective probability of 30-40 of a cut next year as the risks to the growth outlook remain titled to the downside: the export rotation has been uneven, business investment remains a disappointment, housing market imbalances persist and we judge the fiscal multiplier assumed by the BoC as too high. rdquo ldquoThe recent BoC statement noted that economic slack is wide in Canada compared to the US. To us, this explicit acknowledgement by the BoC cements the idea that policy will diverge for some time. rdquo ldquoOil prices are expected to grind towards 60/bbl over 2017. We think a lot of lsquogood newsrsquo post-OPEC deal is already in the price and that a Trump Presidency should keep UST yields elevated. Against this backdrop, we expect G10FX to show greater deference to rate spreads. USDCAD is no exception though a slightly higher profile for oil should limit the overshoot implied by rates. rdquo ldquoThe upcoming Fed meeting is expected to reveal a cautious tone/dovish hike. We would use this as an opportunity to scale into a USDCAD long as January nears, which tends to be the best performing month (even when the January 2015 surprise hike is excluded).rdquo 08:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) increased to -5.6 in November from previous -8.9 07:32 USD/CNY regains 6.90 as USD strengthens ahead of FOMC The Chinese currency resumed its decline versus its American counterpart on Monday, after a minor-recovery staged last Friday, as the greenback advanced sharply against its six major peers in anticipation that the Fed will hike rates by 25bps this Thursday. A trader at a big Chinese bank in Beijing, quotThe yuan faces depreciation pressure as the US dollar strengthened ahead of the expected rate hike this week. The yuan faces depreciation pressure as the US dollar strengthened ahead of the expected rate hike this week. quot The Yuan weakened per dollar also as the Chinese central bank, PBOC, lowered the Yuan fix 6.9086, 114 basis points lower than Fridayrsquos fix of 6.8972. Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair almost unchanged at 6.9077 at mid-day, flirting with daily highs of 6.9085. 07:28 CAD: One more leg down toward 1.3080 - BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the Canadian dollar was the strongest of the majors, gaining 2 against the US dollar. ldquoSteady oil prices at elevated levels and the fact that Canada39s discount on two-year money finished at the lows for the week may have been contributing factors. Typically, the Canadian dollar performs well in a strong US dollar environment. Last month, the US dollar was repulsed after testing the 50 retracement objective of the down move since the multi-year high was set at the start of the year a little below CAD1.4700.rdquo ldquoTechnical indicators are getting stretched, and the Canadian dollar strengthened six of the past seven sessions. If the move is not exhausted, there may be one more leg down toward CAD1.3080. A move back above CAD1.3220 may be the first sign that the US dollar has bottomed. rdquo 07:15 Another repatriation wave into the USD - Westpac The US presidential election has given fresh impetus to another repatriation tax holiday for US corporate earnings held offshore notes Research Team at Westpac and they expect that the US equities and the USD will be the main beneficiaries, mostly in 2018. ldquoThe incoming Trump administration, aided by a Republican-controlled Congress, is set to pursue broadbased US tax reforms. A major piece of any tax reform will be how to deal with 2.6trn in accumulated profits held offshore by US corporates. Any changes to the US tax code on this front could give a significant boost to US equities and the USD. rdquo ldquoUnlike most advanced countries, the US code taxes profits earned by the foreign subsidiary of US companies. However the tax code also allows US corporates to indefinitely reinvest overseas earnings offshore and defer paying the full 35 corporate tax rate on these profits until they are officially repatriated back the US, through a dividend or otherwise transferred back to the US parent. To avoid paying the tax US corporates have hoarded substantial sums overseas, about 2.6trn. rdquo ldquoThe US presidential election has given fresh impetus to a repatriation tax holiday as part of a broader overhaul of the US tax system. The exact timing is uncertain but itrsquos reasonable to assume that legislation will be passed in late 2017 and implemented in 2018.rdquo ldquoThe potential boost to the economy is questionable, even if the legislation requires that the funds be earmarked for hiring and investment like 2004. Payrolls and investment were solid in 2005 during the repatriation tax holiday but they were solid in 2004 and 2006 too. The current 2.6trn hoard overseas is highly concentrated in the tech, energy and pharmaceuticals industries - industries that already enjoy more free cash than they know what to do with. In any case, creative structures allow US companies to regularly access these offshore profits. For example some corporates such as Apple engage in ldquosynthetic repatriationrdquo borrowing in US capital markets against their overseas holdings to fund share buy backs and avoid paying the 35 tax. rdquo ldquoStocks will be the main winner. As in 2005, repatriated earnings are likely to be used to fund share buybacks. rdquo ldquoThe USD should be a big beneficiary too. About 30 of the stock of US earnings offshore was repatriated in 2005. Applying a similar ratio to todayrsquos 2.6trn hoard implies a hefty 780bn in repatriation. But a substantial majority of that is probably already denominated in USD. Company filings from Apple and Microsoft, the two largest holders of offshore earnings show that 80 of their combined offshore earnings are maintained in USD securities. rdquo ldquoEven so, 80 of earnings held in USD still implies a hefty 155bn in corporate demand for the USD. That is negligible compared to daily FX turnover but nonetheless represents yet another positive for the USD which is already enjoying solid support from increasing yield support and heightened EU political tail risks. The most vulnerable currencies appear to be EUR, CAD, GBP and CHF. rdquo ldquoBeyond that there could be longer term ongoing benefits for the USD. A potentially significant decline in the US corporate tax rate from 35 to 15 (Trump39s plan) or 20 (the House Republican plan) would reduce the incentive to hoard cash overseas, especially if the House Republican plan is adopted. Their policy calls for a one-time repatriation tax and then a shift to a quotterritorial systemquot of taxation, ending the US practice of taxing global earnings permanently. rdquo 07:10 USD/JPY stalls correction, re-takes 115.50 The US dollar regained poise versus its Japanese counterpart in the late-Asian trades, sending USD/JPY back higher towards multi-month highs of 115.62. USD/JPY bounces-off daily S3 support The dollar-yen pair stalled a brief downside correction from fresh 10-month highs, as the bulls fought back control amid resurgent USD demand in a risk-friendly market environment, triggered by oil-price rally and bets over an imminent Fed rate hike this week. Earlier on the day, the yen staged a tepid-recovery, knocking-off USD/JPY to 115.15 lows, in response to BOJ taper and tightening chatter. While upbeat Japanese core machinery orders also offered some respite to the yen bulls. The spot is last seen changing hands at 115.51, up 0.10 on the day. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 115.62 (multi-month high). A break above the last, the major could test 116 (zero figure) and 116.50 (psychological levels) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 115 (round number) next at 114.77 (5-DMA) and below that at 114.29 (10-DMA). 07:09 JPY and GBP losing steam against the USD BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the last session was the first since February that the US dollar remained above JPY114.00 and in fact, it made a new 10-month high near JPY115.30. ldquoThe JPY115.60 area corresponds to a 61.8 retracement of the dollar39s decline since reaching almost JPY126 in June 2015. Above there is initial potential toward JPY116.00-JPY116.20. The technical indicators have not confirmed the new dollar highs, but the momentum is strong. Initial support is seen near JPY114.50.rdquo ldquoWhile the yen was the weakest currency last week, shedding almost 1.5, sterling was just behind it with a 1.25 decline. Sterling snapped a two-week advance. Disappointing data, broad dollar strength, and the UK parliament39s support for the government39s timetable of triggering Article 50 took a toll. Early in the week, sterling had reached 1.2775, its highest level since just before the flash crash, but just shy of the 100-day moving average ( 1.2795). It has not traded above that moving average since the referendum. The 1.25 area offers initial support, and a break could see 1.24 in short order. A break of 1.23 would likely signal the end of the two-month correction. The RSI has turned down. The MACDs and Slow Stochastics may rollover near week. rdquo 07:03 NZD/AUD to target the 0.9700 area during the weeks ahead - Westpac NZD/AUD cross retains upward momentum and targets the 0.9700 area during the weeks ahead, expects Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoThat area marked a peak in July and should at least provide some resistance to this rally. rdquo ldquoThe AUD has underperformed the NZD recently, despite AU commodities easily outperforming NZrsquos. Part of the reason is undoubtedly skepticism that AU commodities can sustain the run. Another is the recent run of disappointing AU economic news. rdquo ldquoWe suspect the weak Q3 GDP result last week (-0.5 qoq) was a rogue print, with housing construction and public infrastructure sure to rebound. Export data has so far lagged the surge in commodity prices so we should get some good news on that front too. rdquo ldquoAfter the last weekrsquos dismal GDP data, any clues on a better Q4 will be watched closely. This week on Tue itrsquos Nov NAB business confidence, and on Wed we see Dec consumer sentiment from Westpac/MI but the market focus will be Nov labour data (Thu). Another poor jobs reading would reinforce the gloomy domestic theme. rdquo ldquo 3 months: Eventually we see NZD/AUD starting to reflect the outperformance of AU commodities as well as better economic data ahead. We expect a retest of the 0.9300 area which was visited a number of times during the second half of 2016.rdquo ldquoOur fair value model suggests the cross is around 10 overvalued at present, based on the movement to date in respective commodity prices and interest rates. Wersquore not expecting the cross to snap back to fair value anytime soon, since itrsquos been overvalued for much of this year, but it should at least start to move in that direction. rdquo 06:47 USD/CAD consolidates bearish gap amid 5 WTI rally The Canadian dollar keeps the range near two-month highs against its American counterpart in the late-Asian trades, with USD/CAD hovering ahead of 1.31 handle. USD/CAD dumped on Oil rally Currently, the USD/CAD pair is last seen exchanging hands at 1.3123, down -0.50 so far, having posted fresh two-month troughs at 1.3115 in early deals. The major opened with a bearish gap in Asia this Monday, as oil prices spiked over 4 after the Asian traders cheered the oil output cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC deal was reached over the weekend. While Saudi Arabiarsquos commitment for aggressive cuts also added to easing oversupply worries, bolstering the bids for the black gold, and thus, eventually lifting the demand for the resource-linked Loonie. Oil is Canadarsquos top export product. The bearish momentum seen behind USD/CAD is also partly attributed to the subdued trading activity in the US dollar against its main competitors. Looking ahead, the major will get influenced by the sentiment around oil markets and upcoming US macro releases due on the cards this week. While the main market moving event for the spot this week remains the FOMC rate decision. USD/CAD Technical Levels To the upside, the next resistances are seen near 1.3157 (daily R1) and 1.3172 (5-DMA) and from there to 1.3200 (round number). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.3100 (round figure) and below that at 1.3085 (200-DMA) and at 1.3050 (Oct 18 low). 06:35 EUR: Bounces from the 1.05 level appear to be getting more shallow - BBH Euro bounces from the 1.05 level appear to be getting more shallow as technical indicators are not particularly helpful given the sharp swings in both directions in recent days, notes Research Team at BBH. ldquoThat said, the euro39s squeeze up to almost 1.0875 likely completed the upside correction we had been anticipating. We expect the 1.05 support area yield, with the euro heading toward 1.0430-1.0450 before corrective pressure emerges again. If the 1.05 is not broken, momentum traders will be sorely disappointed, and a bounce back to 1.07 would not surprise. rdquo 06:33 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1 to 0.2 in October 06:32 NZD/USD to remain in a 0.7000-0.7220 range during the week ahead - Westpac After a brief pop above 0.7200, NZD/USD hasnrsquot made any further headway despite a continuing stream of good economic news as noted by the Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoThat is because the US dollarrsquos strength has trumped NZ fundamentals. We expect NZD/USD to remain in a 0.7000-0.7220 range during the week ahead, with the Fed meeting posing upside risks. rdquo ldquoNZrsquos event calendar this week is unlikely to ruffle the NZD, consisting of second-tier data only. We have Q3 manufacturing activity, Q3 building work, manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, and REINZ housing market. The following week we get the next GDT dairy auction which will be watched given WMP has risen 90 since Feb. Futures pricing is predicting a 2 rise, which may not be enough to get a NZD response given last weekrsquos 4 did not. Indeed, while there is a relationship between dairy prices and the NZD over the long run, it is weak at best over the short run. rdquo ldquoThere is a political event of note. Last week saw the unexpected resignation of John Key as Prime Minister after eight years in office, and following a caucus vote the previous Deputy Prime Minister Bill English takes the reins from today. Mr English has been Finance Minister for the past eight years, and is likely to maintain his relatively conservative approach to fiscal management. But the loss of a fairly popular political leader in the run up to an election does add an additional layer of uncertainty to the outlook. And at the margin, it has raised the odds of a snap election. rdquo ldquoHowever as noted above, NZD/USD is mostly a US story at present. which means we will be watching US events closely for NZD/USD clues during the week ahead. On that score, the highlight event will be the Fed meeting on 14 Dec, with a hike a near certainty (and more than fully priced). The statement should be balanced, rather than hawkish, and officials are unlikely to lift growth or dot plot projections until more details on Trumprsquos tax and infrastructure plans emerge. If the US dollar pauses or pulls back in response to the FOMC announcement, then NZD/USD will rally. rdquo ldquo 3 months: We expect the US dollar to eventually resume its uptrend as the US economy improves further and US interest rates rise further, and the FOMC membership becomes more hawkish. That should eventually cause NZD/USD to decline to 0.70 or lower. rdquo 06:26 USD: Finishing the year on a firm note - BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the US dollar is finishing the year on a firm note as i t rose to a 10-month high against the yen before the weekend while the euro remains within spitting distance of the bottom of its two-year range near 1.05. ldquoOver the past month, dollar pullbacks have been generally shallow and brief. rdquo ldquoThis week39s FOMC meeting is the last big event of the year. The dollar may continue to be well supported ahead of the meeting where a rate hike is fully discounted. The Fed officials may revise up growth and inflation forecasts, and still not take into account the extent of fiscal stimulus that may be delivered. The President-elect39s team has indicated the initial economic focus will be on trade, not taxes or stimulus. rdquo ldquoNevertheless, investors anticipate both fiscal stimulus and a more hawkish configuration at the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the ECB will be expanding its balance sheet by 780 bln euros next year, and the BOJ39s extraordinary monetary policy is set to continue, augmented by modest fiscal stimulus. Also, while many emerging-market central banks have been reducing their Treasury holdings to support their currencies, private sector demand has been strong, with European investor interest reported. Americans appear to be liquidating some of their holdings for foreign bonds. Foreign investors have returned to the Japanese equity market, but it appears to be mostly on a currency-hedged basis. rdquo ldquoWe had anticipated the US Dollar Index to fall to 99.70 and possibly 99.00. It recorded a low a little below 99.45 in the knee-jerk response to what appeared at ECB tapering. It quickly rebounded, and before the weekend was testing a short-term down trendline drawn off the November 24, November 30, and December 5 high. It was found near 101.55 before the weekend and 101.30 at the end of next week. The speed of the Dollar Index 39s recovery means that MACDs and Slow Stochastics have not crossed higher to generate new buy signals, though they may turn early next week. Remember, the 101.80 area is the 61.8 retracement of the decline since from the 121.00 level seen in July 2001.rdquo 06:22 BOJ tapering sees bond buying slow toward 70 trillion yen - BBG Bloomberg carried an article this Monday, noting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) technically have retained their target for the annual increase in government bond holdings at 80 trillion yen (699 billion), there are signs the buying may come in closer to 70 trillion yen. Data compiled by Bloomberg show, for the year so far, the BOJ bonding buying annualized is 71.7 trillion yen, versus 75.3 trillion over the same period last year. Chief market economist at Nomura Securities Co, quotThe BOJ is not going to need to purchase 80 trillion yen to keep the yield curve under control. At some point in time they are going to drop the language on 80 trillion yen. quot 05:59 Nikkei back in positive territory on YTD basis Japanrsquos Nikkei index is back into the positive territory on year-to-date basis. The amazing turnaround has been single handedly fueled by the drop in the Japanese Yen. The index had dropped from the January high of 18,951 to hit a low of 14,864 in June. During the same time period, Dollar-Yen dropped from 122.00 to 99.00 levels. However, the USD/JPY pair turned higher in the second half of this year. The uptrend gathered pace after Trump victory. The spot is now eyeing 115.00 levels. Consequently, the Nikkei index rose to a fresh 2016 high of 19,281 levels. 05:45 Ten-year Treasury yield rises to highest since June The yield on the benchmark Ten-year treasury yield rose to 2.497, its highest since June 2015 as oil rose to 16-month high on back of the first global oil deal since 2001. At the time of writing, the 10-yr yield traded at least 2.5 basis points higher on the day. Meanwhile, at the short-end of the curve, the 2-year yield rose 1.6 basis points to 1.149. Oil rallied 5 in Asia after the non-OPEC members cut 558K barrels per day. In response, Saudi Arabia it stands ready to cut more than what was agreed on November 30. The resulting risk-on in the markets reduced demand for the treasuries. Furthermore, rally in oil is also likely to push up inflation expectations, which too is supporting the gains in the treasury yields. 05:42 BOJ may soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007 - WSJ The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ran a story over the weekend, noting that Japanese central bank the BOJ may soon have to resort to tightening for the first time since 2007 in wake of higher inflation expectations from the Trumprsquos presidency. One of central bankingrsquos most aggressive easersmdashthe Bank of Japan (BOJ)mdashmay soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007. In a Trump-fueled turnaround, the BOJ may have to lift its 10-year government-bond target from the recently set zero Triggered by expectations that his policies would boost U. S. growth, inflation and interest rates So far, that has been good for Japan, where the weaker yen is brightening exporters39 prospects, helping send Tokyo stocks to 11-month highs 05:30 NZD/USD rebounds to 50-DMA, focus shifts to China data dump The NZD/USD pair extends its recovery into mid-Asia, and now looks to take-out 50-DMA barrier located at 0.7146 amid a broadly subdued US dollar and rally in oil prices. NZD/USD supported at daily S1 Currently, the NZD/USD pair trades 0.11 higher at 0.7143, flirting with session tops reached at 0.7146 in the last hour. The Kiwi is on a roll higher, extending its winning streak into a fourth day today, having staged a solid recovery from a dip below 0.70 handle. The NZD/USD pair remains well bid as investors take the yield-advantage amid a better sentiment towards risk assets, in wake of an oil output cut deal struck between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers over the weekend. However, it remains to be seen whether the major can sustain the ongoing bullish run, as focus now shifts towards tomorrowrsquos Chinese data dump and upcoming FOMC interest rates decision, which is expected to have a significant impact on NZD/USD. NZD/USD Levels to consider To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7203 (100-DMA), above which it could extend gains to 0.7226 (multi-week high) and from there to 0.7250 (psychological levels). To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7109 (200-DMA) and from there to at 0.7091 (20-DMA), below which 0.7065 (Dec 5 low) would be tested. 05:16 Moodys on NZ: Half-year economic amp fiscal update for 2016-17 demonstrates strong public finances The US-based ratings agency, Moodyrsquos Investors Service, published its latest report on the Government of New Zealand . titled lsquoGovernment of New Zealand (NZ): Strong Public Finances, Robust Economic Growth Bolster Sovereign Credit Profilersquo on Monday. Key Points from the report: Government forecasts average annual GDP growth of 3.5 over 2017 and 2018, is slightly higher than Moody39s forecast and points to some downside risk to the revenue projections New Zealand will remain among the fastest growing economies in Moody39s Aaa-rated universe The half-year economic and fiscal update (HYEFU) for 2016-2017 demonstrates strong public finances, providing the government with significant financial flexibility to face negative shocks such as the Kaikoura earthquake Moody39s expects policies and reforms that foster economic growth and maintain sound public finances to remain a key focus under a new leadership 05:16 GBP/USD snaps four-day losing streak The GBP/USD pair snapped a four-day losing streak in Asia amid oil-led risk-on action in the markets. The pair ticked higher from the session low of 1.2570 but failed to chew trough offers around 1.26 handle. The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) lifted 2017 GDP forecast to 1.1 from the previous figure of 1.0. Meanwhile, 2018 GDP forecast was revised lower to 1.4. However, the markets did not take note of the BCC forecasts and remain at the mercy of the oil price action, given the empty economic calendar across the globe. GBP/USD Technical Levels The spot was last seen trading around 1.2580 levels. A break above 1.26 (psychological level hourly 50-MA) would expose the hourly 200-MA level and hourly 100-MA level of 1.2617 and 1.2636 respectively. A violation there could yield re-test of 1.2704 (hourly chart hurdle). On the lower side, breach of Asian session low of 1.2570 would expose support at 1.2548 (Aug 12 low), under which the losses could be extended to 1.25 (zero figure). 05:01 Indicators signaling USD/CAD is oversold While intraday moving averages point at a continued USD/CAD depreciation, the latest momentum readings raise the odds of a minor throwback. USD/CAD appears primed for a pullback, at least towards overhead resistance established by the 50-period simple moving average. Consistent declines locked RSI below the 50 mark for most of the last 3 weeks. More noticeable was the recent sell off which led the oscillator plunge below its 25 level. This showed that market participants are keen on selling. In the context of a prolonged down trend, the 4-hour RSI looks now very heavy on the sell side so it could be prone to a squeeze back higher. However, the risks are but still skewed to the downside. 05:01 USD/JPY retreats from 10-month tops, but keeps 115.00 Having peaked at 10-month highs at Tokyo open, the USD/JPY pair took a breather and came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour amid a minor-correction seen in the US dollar across the board. USD/JPY trades above all major DMAs The dollar-yen pair is seen retracing a part of the intraday rally to new ten-month tops, largely on the back of stalled US treasury yields buying, which triggered a corrective slide in the US dollar against its main peers. Also, the major tracks a minor-retreat in the Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index now reverting towards daily lows. Calendar-wise, we had the Japanese core machinery data, which came in much stronger-than expected, and therefore, the upbeat Japanese data also could have helped rescue the JPY bulls. However, the retreat remains restricted amid persisting risk-on sentiment, spurred by weekendrsquos OPEC and non-OPEC oil output deal agreement. While expectations of Fed tightening this week also keeps the sentiment buoyed around the USD/JPY pair. The spot is last seen changing hands at 115.25, reversing from 10-month highs of 115.62, down -0.10 on the day. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 115.62 (multi-month high). A break above the last, the major could test 116 (zero figure) and 116.50 (psychological levels) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 115 (round number) next at 114.77 (5-DMA) and below that at 114.29 (10-DMA). 04:48 OPEC s global producer pact could signal oil market metamorphosis Platts SampP Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets, believes ldquojoint output cut pact highlights a show of strength and unity across global producers that could mark a new era in cooperation aimed at bringing stability back to global oil marketsrdquo. Buoyed by the non-OPEC deal, Saudi Arabia said it could cut below the psychological figure of 10 million barrels per day. Platts says, ldquoSaudi is making it clear to the global market: the kingdom wants the output deal it negotiated with major producing countries to stick, even if it has to cut production more than it already committed to. rdquo 04:45 UKs BCC: UK s current GDP growth rate won t last BBC News The UKrsquos British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) upgraded its 207 growth forecasts for the UK economy, although warned that higher growth prospects are unsustainable in wake of uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship. ldquoThe business body expects 2.1 GDP growth this year, up from the 1.8 it forecast just three months agordquo ldquoBut uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship and higher inflation will quotdampen medium term growthquot ldquoIt expects UK GDP to grow 1.1 next year, and 1.4 in 2018rdquo ldquoHowever, its 1.1 forecast for next year would mark the weakest annual rate of growth for the UK since the 2008 financial crisisrdquo 04:38 AUD/USD lifted by Oil deal-driven risk-on The AUD/USD pair staged a solid comeback, after a weaker Asia opening, now taking the rate beyond the mid-point of 0.74 handle amid a risk-friendly market environment, underpinned by weekendrsquos oil output cut deal. AUD/USD recovers to test 10-DMA at 0.7455 Currently, the AUD/USD pair trades 0.11 higher at 0.7456, retracing from session tops placed just ahead of 5-DMA at 0.7464. The overnight rally in oil prices after markets cheered an oil output cut finally reached between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday, provided some impetus to the resourced-linked AUD. Moreover, oil deal-induced risk-on trades across the markets also collaborated to the bullish sentiment around the higher-yielding emerging market currency, while the US dollar remains broadly subdued. Further, analysts at Goldman Sachs lifted copper prices forecasts for next year, which also helped the Aussie to take on a minor-recovery from a brief dip to 0.7430 witnessed in the opening trades. However, further upside looks limited as markets turn cautious stepping into the FOMC week, with a 25-bps hike already priced-in by investors. AUD/USD Levels to watch The pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7505 (Nov 17 high) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 0.7575 (Nov 16 high) and 0.7600 (zero figure). On the flip side, the immediate support located 0.7400 (round number). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7385 (key support) and below that at 0.7366 (Dec 1 low). 04:36 Goldman Sachs upgrades Iron Ore and Copper forecasts Iron ore rally post-Trump victory has caught most investment banks on the wrong side of the trade. The metal now trades around 80 per tonne, which is significantly higher than the most calendar 2017 forecasts. Goldman Sachs has hiked its three-month forecast to 65 per tonne. The investment banker has also revised its copper forecast for three months, six months, and 12 months higher to 5800, 6200 and 5600 respectively. 04:23 Goldman Sachs: OPEC, non-OPEC announced oil cuts smaller than expected Analysts at Goldman Sachs present their afterthoughts after an output cut deal was finally reached between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers over the weekend. Key Headlines via Bloomberg: Announced cuts are smaller than expected Implementation remains uncertain Nevertheless, the agreement removes the uncertainty surrounding participation of non-OPEC nations to OPEC reduction Saudi Arabia will help achieve a normalization of inventories. even if it requires a larger unilateral cut The cuts support the bank39s H1 (2017) WTI price forecast of 55/barrel GS bases this forecast on effective 1m b/d cuts Greater compliance to the 1.6 target is therefore an upside risk to price forecast ldquoBetter compliance than bank expects would initially lead to higher prices -- with full compliance adding 6/bbl to its price forecast. but then there would be a bigger producer responserdquo 04:15 China officials: Target for economic growth next year should be 6.5 The State Information Center, an official think tank affiliated with Chinarsquos National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), noted its expectations for the Chinese growth targets in an article published in the China Securities Journal. Key Quotes via Reuters: ldquoThe State Information Center says the target for economic growth next year should be 6.5 and exceeding that level is very likelyrdquo quotIn 2017, China39s economic operations will need to intensify efforts to alleviate deep-seated contradictions and structural problemsrdquo 04:14 Further gains in USD contingent on meaningful fiscal stimulus Goldman Sachs The Dollar index has already rallied from 96.00 levels to 102.12 the highest level since 2003 on the back of heightened odds of a steeper Fed rate hike path in 2017. Research team at Goldman Sachs believes the greenback could strengthen further if there is meaningful fiscal stimulus in the US economy, which is already close to full capacity. Goldman sees Trade Weighted Index (TWI) USD to appreciate close to 7 against the majors over the next 12 months. 04:08 NZIER: Forecasters have revised up their NZ growth and inflation forecasts The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) published a forecast from economists for the NZ economy on Monday, with the forecasts for growth and inflation revised upwards. Forecasters have revised up their growth and inflation forecasts Annual inflation is expected to reach the RBNZ39s 2 mid-point target by March 2019 Continued strong migration-led population growth expected to boost household spending and residential construction further over the next few years Businesses are also feeling more confident, and are more optimistic about investment and hiring Underlying trend improvement in employment demand Unemployment rate expected to fall to 4.6 by March 2018 Skills shortages becoming more apparent, thus wage growth has been revised up Forecasts range from 1.7 to 3.2 for the year to March 2020 04:01 USD/NOK hints at dip buying The hourly 50-period SMA broke through the slower 200-period SMA, adding credence to the recent bullish USD/NOK profile. If USD/NOK spot falls closer to the level where the moving averages crossed, then buyers might see it as an opportunity to reenter. Furthermore, a convincing break through the 50 SMA signals a neutral tone, shifting negative below the 200 SMA. 03:57 EUR/USD headed for turmoil on FOMC and 2017 s political outlook EUR/USD is lower again in Asia after another bazooka from the ECB last week in respect to their QE extensions, coupled with concerns over the Italian and European banking crisis that could be the New Year event instead of China this time around, both are supporting the greenback as a safe haven and a bearish outlook for the single currency, as funding currency. Analysts at Rabobank, in their recent report, said in a summary, quotRecent economic data have been in line with the Fed39s expectations. What39s more, markets have responded positively to the outcome of the elections and are pricing in a 100 probability of a December hike. So unless there is a major disruptive event between now and December 14, the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75.quot Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank In respect to the ECB, they are committed to their asset purchases programme and the dovish tone of the Draghi has fuelled speculation for parity vrs the dollar. It could be just as well due to the onset of political uncertainties taking fold next year in Euroland. Considering Draghi has extended the QE programme, albeit at a slower pace, he has done so until Dec and 2017 which means there will be plenty of cheap money around to soften the impact of German elections and subsequent volatility in the autumn of 2017. quotOn the assumption that populist parties do not prevail in next spring39s Dutch and French election, we are forecasting EUR/USD at 1.10 on a 12 mth view, quot offered analysts at Rabobank. Meanwhile, spot is currently trading at 1.0551 EUR/USD after a retreat from 1.0875 recently on the ECb decision39s initial spike, before a breakdown through the 1.0620 and the 20 day ma with focus now set on the recent low at 1.0505 and 1.0467, the March low. quotThis remains a major break down point to parity, quot explained analysts at Commerzbank. EUR/USD analysis: Yellen, Trump, and FED39s future up next 03:53 Asian stocks rally on oil deal amp Saudis whatever it takes moment Asian stock markets are having a good time this Monday morning on account of the first global oil deal since 2011 and Saudirsquos readiness to do lsquowhatever it takesrsquo to rebalance the oil markets. Japanrsquos Nikkei gained 1.3 or 247 points to 19,244. The weakness in the Japanese Yen is also driving the stock prices higher. Australiarsquos SampP/ASX 200 rose 0.34 or 18 points to 5580 levels. Oil jumped to its highest level since July 2015 after the non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output by 558K barrels per day. Following the non-OPEC deal, Saudi said it could do more cuts beyond what the level decided on November 30. The data calendar is light across the globe. Hence, oil remains at the center stage of the financial markets. 03:24 Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank said that it seems like we can add the Fedrsquos annual hike to the calendar as a recurring event in December. quotThe FOMC launched its hiking cycle in December 2015, promising to hike four times this year, but instead we are heading for another single hike in December. The minutes of the FOMC meeting of November 1-2 confirmed the now widely held view that the Fed will hike in the final month of the year. Members generally agreed that the case for a hike had continued to strengthen. But a majority of members judged that the Committee should, for the time being, await further evidence of progress toward the Fedrsquos objectives. Most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon. Some participants noted that recent Committee communications were consistent with a hike in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting. Fed Chair Yellenrsquos testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on November 17 suggested that the outcome of the elections a week earlier had not changed the mind of the FOMC. Moreover, she stressed that waiting for further evidence did not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Rather, with the unemployment rate remaining steady this year despite above - trend job gains, and with inflation continuing to run below its target, the FOMC judged that there was somewhat more room for the labor market to improve on a sustainable basis than the Committee had anticipated at the beginning of the year. With respect to the impact of the election outcome on the Fedrsquos rate path she said that there was still a lot of uncertainty about fiscal policy next year and its inflationary consequences. Since Yellenrsquos testimony, Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.2 from 2.9, while the Atlanta Fedrsquos nowcast for Q4 GDP growth stood at 2.6 on December 6. This is the pickup in growth that the FOMC was looking for in H2, after the disappointing 0.8 in Q1 and 1.4 in Q2. Whatrsquos more, the Employment Report for November showed that nonfarm payroll growth continued at a decent pace of 178K, and unemployment fell to 4.6 from 4.9. Finally, the PCE deflator ndash which is the Fedrsquos preferred measure of inflation ndash rose to 1.4 in October from 1.2 (year-on-year). So the economic data have passed the Fedrsquos three tests for a rate hike: a pickup in GDP growth, continued labor market improvement, and rising inflation. Whatrsquos more, after a very brief risk-off reaction, the financial markets have responded positively to the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. In combination with Republican majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, markets are looking forward to a substantial fiscal policy stimulus boosting the economy. The probability of a December hike priced in by the futures markets has risen to 100. So unless there is a major disruptive event between now and December 14, the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75. It remains to be seen whether the decision to hike will be unanimous. The September dot plot revealed that three participants did not expect to hike at all this year. However, not all participants have voting rights and the recent economic data ndash and the anticipated fiscal stimulus by the new administration ndash could persuade dovish voters. Given the upbeat sentiment in recent weeks, a dissent may not disturb the markets very much. However, if markets have a bad day on December 14, a dissent could make it worse. quot 03:24 Gold drops to lowest since February Gold is feeling the heat of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil output cut deal and the resulting rise in the oil prices. The metal was last seen trading 1155/Oz the lowest since February. Oil spiked more than 5 after the non-OPEC group headed by Russia agreed to cut output by 558K barrels per day. Buoyed the non-OPEC deal, Saudi said it may cut more than what was agreed on November 30. Oil rally is usually good news for the riskier assets. Consequently, investors are moving out of gold in Asia. Gold Technical Levels A break below 1142.97 (Mar 2015 low) would open doors for a sell-off to 1132.08 (Nov 2014 low). On the higher side, violation at the Asian session high of 1159.90 could yield a re-test of 1172.07 (61.8 of Dec 2015 low ndash July 2016 high). 03:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9086 vs 6.8972 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9086 vs 6.8972 03:10 USD/CNY fix projection 6.9156 from 6.8972 - Nomura Analysts at nomura offered their model1 projects for the fix. quotOur model1 projects for the fix to be 184 pips higher than the previous fix (6.9156 from 6.8972) and 151 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.9005. The basket implied change is 202 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.9207 from 6.9005). 02:59 Russias Novak cheers global oil deal Russian Energy Ministry Alexander Novak, in an exclusive interview to Bloomberg, cheered the global oil deal and said he is satisfied with the current oil prices. Novak reportedly said on Sunday that oil prices could have dropped to 30-35 per barrel, if OPEC and non-OPEC countries had not struck an output reduction deal. 02:47 AUD/JPY isnt buying the oil surge AUD/JPY, the global risk barometer, is trading sideways despite the rise in oil prices to 16-month highs on the global oil deal. The cross clocked a high of 86.07 and was last seen trading just below 86.00 levels. Fridayrsquos high stands at 86.09. Oil prices spiked after OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output for the first time since 2011. Oil rally usually bodes well for the risk assets. However, the lacklustre action in the AUD/JPY cross today could be suggesting otherwise. AUD/JPY Technical Levels A break below 85.73 (session low) would expose the downward sloping weekly 100-MA of 85.50, under which the losses could be extended to 84.33 (weekly 5-MA). On the higher side, acceptance above 86.00 could yield 86.70 (March high) and 87.00 (zero figure). 02:45 USD/JPY: better bid and about to get bidder for the 120 s USD/JPY has been a strong bid in risk-on markets while investors are backing the greenback as we head towards the end of the year and much uncertainty to come in 2017. The greenback is in demand as the world39s reserve currency while the Yen has been printed so much that it has diluted its safe-haven appeal given the weakness in the Japanese economy and divergence between the BoJ and Federal Reserve. Longer-term rate differentials (10Y spreads) continue to widen the yield gap of over 230bps last week represented the biggest yield gap for the USD since 2010. Fed funds futures continued to imply a 100 chance of a rate hike on 14 December, and two more rate hikes priced in for 2017. Fed preview: The second rate hike is coming - Commerzbank Investors are placing their money where they are predicting a better return, and that is the greenback and US stocks while bonds plummet and global yields rise in the face of reflation. Oil prices/demand and the Yen Also, worth noting, is that Japan is the world39s second largest net importer of fossil fuels and oil remains the largest source of primary energy consumption in Japan. The recent accord between non-OPEC members with OPEC members has seen a rally in oil prices at the start of this week that is not helpful to the ailing Japanese economy - a demand driven environment that this could well spark ahead of this week39s FOMC when full markets get going could weigh on the Yen further. Brent oil clocks 16-month high on first global oil pact The market has penetrated through the 115.41 key fibo level and we are in the sixth weekly decline in the Yen and we have penetrated the 200 week sma at 108.92, marching on through Feb 2016 highs and that reveals the 12039s and 2016 high of 121.68. 120.00/120.10 represents the 78.6 retracement of the move down from 2015. Break to the downside, on say the FOMC holding or a sell the fact on a hike could test the 114.80 level and 112.80 as the floor of the early Dec commencing channel support line. 02:22 Brent oil clocks 26-month high on first global oil pact Brent oil jumped to 57.50 itrsquos highest since mid July 2015 after the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday reached their first output cut deal since 2001. Non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to cut the output by 558K barrels per day. The cut is equivalent to the demand growth seen from China and India. Saudirsquos lsquowhatever it takesrsquo moment Buoyed by the non-OPEC deal, Saudi took a page out of ECB President Mario Draghirsquos book by stating it is ready to lsquodo whatever it takesrsquo ndash cut production below the level agreed on November 30hellip Even below the psychological figure of 10 million barrels per day. Consequently, oil benchmarks spiked in early Asia. Energy/Mining shares could rally Oil and Mining stocks across the globe are likely to cheer the first global oil deal since 2001. UKrsquos FTSE 100 may close-in on 7000 levels, while US indices could see another record high closing. Brent Technical Levels Brent was last seen trading around 56.60/barrel. A break above 57.70 (session high) would open doors for 58.55 (mid-Dec 2015 low). A major hurdle above the same is directly seen at 60.00. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 56.00 (zero figure) could yield a correction to 54.29 (session low), under which a major support is seen directly at 51.80 (weekly 5-MA). 02:05 USD/CAD extends bearish gap as Oil spikes through 54 WTI USD/CAD has been offered on the back of the non-OPEC accord with OPEC members that came to fruition over the weekend. It was a slow reaction in the market, but eventually oil jumped on the back of the pledge to lift the value and prices of oil in a bid to support the economies that have been hit hard by the glut of oil that started over two years ago by the 13 non-OPEC members agreed to cut crude output by 558,000bpd. That volume is in addition to the 1.2 million barrels a day in cuts from OPEC members, and this is amounting to a total of almost 2 of global oil supply - Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd. USD/CAD39s bearish trajectory is intact and has been one-way since late November, observed analysts at Scotiabank, explained that this shows no sign of stopping. quotShort-term trend momentum has strengthened and spot is heading for a test of the broader bull channel trend at 1.3090/00 that comes into focus. quot 02:02 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -1.1 to -2.1 02:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4 from previous 4.5 01:55 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY) fell from previous 14 to 2.2 01:51 Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4, above expectations (0.3) in November 01:51 Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-2.3) in November: Actual (-2.2) 01:51 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at 4.1, above expectations (1) in October 01:40 Oil: what a mover, to highest levels since July 2015 s glut sell-off from 56 Oil is much higher in early Asia on the back of the weekend news with a gap through 52.00 and has reached a high of 54.31 in WTI so far. The 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut crude output by 558,000bpd, of which Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd. This move will be in addition to the 1.2 million barrels a day in cuts from OPEC members, and this is amounting to a total of almost 2 of global oil supply. This accord between OPEC and non-OPEc producing nations is a pact designed to reduce a global oversupply of crude and subsequently lift the value and prices of oil in a bid to support the economies that have been hit hard by the glut of oil that started over two years ago. Across the board, the dollar is mixed, but losing its shine rapidly, especially vrs the oil related bloc such as the pound and the Canadian dollar. We are now at the highest levels in WTI since the summer of 2017 when prices dropped below 56 and plummeted through 51.50 eventually on the oil glut that finally took the price all the way down to 28.93 in February earlier this year. 01:19 NZD/USD: offered below 200 sma on 1hr sticks NZD/USD has continued on the offer in early Asia to start the week ahead of the FOMC as the main event for markets. NZD/USD trades below the 1hr 200-sma at 0.7127 and is testing the downside of the ascending support line from the start of December39s rally at 0.7041. Just today, the front runner, Bill English, was confirmed as Prime Minister after John Key announced his resignation last week. Also, we had net migration for October that came in at 6240, from 6340 in October with wholesale sales 1 for Q3 vrs 1.7 prior seasonally adjusted. Analysts at Westpac explained the US dollar39s extended rise recently has flipped NZD/USD momentum from positive to neutral, in a 0.7000-0.7200 range. NZD/USD 1-3 month: quotThe US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further during the months ahead, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. Against that, the NZ economy is strong and dairy prices have risen. Overall we are left with a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, targeting sub-0.70,quot - analysts at Westpac offered. 00:41 GBP/USD: finding a bid in the open on a mixed dollar and despite Brexit w/e news GBP/USD has opened on the bid in early Asia while the dollar is mixed across the board - strong vrs the yen, euro and Aussie. Market wrap: US dollar and US rates helped by data - Westpac The pound has opened with a bid from lows of 1.2569 with a high up to test 1.26 the figure. The weekend news hasn39t offered anything significant that can be related to the gaps across the board and mixed outlook, but the pound is robust, despite PM May39s next challenge in respect of Brexit while opponents are launching a fresh legal action to upend her plans for leaving the EU and triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. The campaigners will be appealing to the high court in an effort to keep Britain in the single market and give MP39s powers to veto over the terms of which Britain can leave the EU. Other news came with Fitch affirming the UK AA with a negative outlook. Also, 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut output by 558,000bpd, of which Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd - Non-OPEC counties join the cartel in output cut GBP/USD recently failed 1.2778 and close to the 100 day ma. To the downside, there is room to the 1.2424 two month uptrend on a break below 1.2530/50 local support area and a subsequent sell-off below the 1.25 handle. quotThis remains the break down point to the 1.2090/85 October 11 and 25 lows, quot suggested analysts at Commerzbank, adding, quotIntraday rallies are likely to now struggle circa 1.2665.Initial support lies at 1.2302/1.2285.quot 00:10 Prospects of another large economic stimulus package - Nomura Analysts at Nomura explained that the economic stimulus package approved by the Cabinet in August totaled yen28trn, more than had been expected. quotThe reasons for the size of the package were probably the strength of the yen in the first half of 2016 and serious concerns about the impact of Brexit on financial markets and the economy. We expect the economy to begin to slow gradually in FY17 H2 as the impact of existing economic stimulus packages begins to fade. However, with the economy unlikely to slow to below its potential growth rate, we do not expect a large economic stimulus package in FY17.quot quotThat said, in view of the many imponderables, we cannot rule out the possibility that concerns similar to those of this summer may reappear. In our view, such concerns are more likely to be triggered by developments overseas than in Japan. If President-elect Trump39s trade policies turn out to be protectionist, we see a risk that the new administration could favor a weaker dollar and try to pressurize countries with a trade surplus into stimulating domestic demand. Also, we will need to monitor US behavior at G7 and G20 meetings as well as look out for the US Treasury39s Semiannual Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. Similarly, election victories for protectionist political parties in Europe could trigger the risk-off trade (ie, flows into yen and out of stock markets), which could have a negative knock-on effect on the Japanese economy via its impact on financial markets. If such risks materialized, the likelihood of fiscal expansion would increase. quot Data source: FX Street Disclaimer :This material is provided by FXStreet as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis e qualquer informação contendo uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os utilizadores reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos de FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um elevado nível de risco pelo qual os utilizadores são os únicos responsáveis e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento realizado com base nas informações aqui apresentadas. Legal: HotForex is a registered brand name of HF Markets (Europe) Ltd a Cypriot Investment Firm (CIF) under number HE 277582. Regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 183/12. A HotForex é regida pela Directiva sobre Mercados de Instrumentos Financeiros (MiFID) da União Europeia. O website hfeu é operado pela HF Markets (Europe) Ltd. Aviso de Risco: A negociação de produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores, pois eles trazem um alto grau de risco para seu capital. Certifique-se de que compreende completamente os riscos envolvidos, tendo em conta os seus objectivos de investimento e o nível de experiência, antes da negociação e, se necessário, procure aconselhamento independente. Leia a divulgação completa do risco. A HotForex não aceita clientes dos Estados Unidos, Bélgica, Irã, Sudão, Síria e Coréia do Norte. Copyright 2016 - Todos os Direitos Reservados Aviso de Risco: A negociação de produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores, pois eles possuem um alto grau de risco para seu capital. Leia a divulgação completa do risco. Aviso de risco: Lembre-se de Forex e CFDs são produtos alavancados e pode resultar na perda de todo o capital investido. Please consider our Risk Disclosure. Forex News 10:12 GBP/USD retakes 1.2600 handle but lacks momentum The GBP/USD pair built on to its early recovery momentum and has now reversed Friday39s minor losses to move back marginally above 1.2600 handle. After spending majority of the Asian session the said handle, the pair caught fresh bids during early European session amid subdued greenback price-action. The momentum, however, lacked conviction as investors now look to central bank decisions from both, the US and UK later during this week. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday, while the Bank of England . on Thursday, is expected to keep its current monetary policy stance unchanged. Meanwhile, the accompanying rate-statements and subsequent press conference would be looked upon for fresh insights over the central banks near-term monetary policy outlook and help investors determine the pair39s trajectory in the near-term. In absence of any major market moving releases on Monday, the pair would take clues from the broader sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, which would continue to be driven by expectations over the pace of Fed rate-hike next year. Technical levels to watch A follow through buying interest, leading to a momentum above 1.2620 resistance (Friday39s high), is likely to trigger a short-covering rally immediately towards 1.2670-75 intermediate resistance en-route 1.2700 round figure mark. On the downside, weakness below session low support near 1.2575 level is likely to drag the pair back towards an important support near 1.2550 region, which if broken might accelerate the slide towards 1.2500 psychological mark. 10:04 USD/JPY bid above 113.84 Commerzbank In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pairrsquos bias stays bid above 113.84. ldquo USD/JPY has eroded its 100 week ma at 114.74, and appears to already be resuming its up move. Last week price action held rigidly above the Imoku 1 support, currently at 113.84 and the market is immediately bid above here. We note the 13 count on the 60 minute chart and may see a small dip lower very near termrdquo. ldquoAbove here we also have the 61.8 retracement of the move 2015- 2016) at 116.00 and we are allowing for a near term consolidation. Above here would target 120.00/120.10, the 78.6 retracement of the move down from 2015rdquo. 10:02 Denmark Inflation (HICP) (YoY) remains at 0.1 in November 09:59 ECB: Greater longevity, exibility and asymmetry in the APP Goldman Sachs Lasse Holboell Nielsen, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, notes that the ECB in its latest meet announced a continuation of its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) for a further nine months, from April 2017 to December 2017 (ldquoor beyond, if necessary, and in any case .. until a sustained adjustment in the path of ination consistent with its ination aimrdquo). ldquoThe monthly pace of asset purchases will slow as from April 2017 to euro60bn, from the current pace of euro80bn per month. This is lower than we expected. rdquo ldquoAt the post-meeting press conference, President Draghi emphasised then longevity of the asset purchase programme. He mentioned several times that lsquotaperingrsquo (which he dened as a gradual path of reduction to zero purchases) had not been discussed during the meeting. More specically, Mr. Draghi stated that the Governing Council had chosen a nine-month extension at euro60bn per month over a shorter six-month extension at a faster euro80bn per month pace. Mr. Draghi also emphasised that the ECB sought to maintain ldquoa sustained market presenceldquo through extending the duration of the programme. rdquo ldquoThe Governing Council introduced greater exibility into the implementation of asset purchases, introducing the possibility of increasing the pace and/or duration of the APP should the ldquooutlook become less favourableldquo or if nancial conditions tighten excessively. rdquo ldquoThe new exibility in the programme was styled as asymmetric. By contrast with the explicit signal of increased purchases should conditions deteriorate, Mr. Draghi described any prospects of moving below the euro60bn monthly purchase pace as ldquofar, far away. rdquo ldquoIn terms of the broader macroeconomic outlook, the ECB staff forecast was left essentially unchanged from September. The (new) ECB forecast for ination in 2019 was 1.7. Mr. Draghi characterised this forecast as ldquonot reallyldquo in line with the ECBrsquos objective (HICP ination ldquobelow, but close to, 2pardquo), thus providing a macroeconomic rationale for the extension of asset purchases. rdquo ldquoWith latest announcements we maintain our forecast that the APP will continue through 2018 (at a progressively reduced pace from the euro60bn per month we will see from April to December next year).rdquo ldquoWe maintain our view that the rst ECB rate increase remains distant. We do not expect the rst hike until end-2019, somewhat later than current market pricing. rdquo 09:53 EURCAD: Short, medium and long-term trend oscillators are moving into bearish alignment - Scotiabank EURCAD closed out a fifth, consecutive losing week at its lowest level in nearly 18 months as noted by the Analysts at Scotiabank. ldquoThe cross has had a very poor few weeksmdashreversing strongly from 1.50, falling below major trend support in the low 1.44s and losing long-term, retracement support at 1.4203. As noted previously, weekly and monthly bear reversals were signaled by Novemberrsquos price moves and the loss of support at 1.42 implied a drop to the 76.4 retracement at 1.3755mdash which looks reachable in the relative near-term. Beyond that, there is some support around 1.35 but little, major support until the 1.30 area. rdquo ldquoWe are not excluding the risk of the bear move extending towards 1.30/1.35 in the next few months. Short, medium and long-term trend oscillators are slowly moving into bearish alignment, which will aid and abet the slide and limit scope for EUR counter-trend rallies. rdquo 09:43 ECB: The beginning of the end of QE Commerzbank After the ECB opted to prolong its bond purchases by nine months and to lower the volume to euro60bn, investors are asking whether this marks the beginning of the process of exiting from bond purchases notes Dr Joerg Kraemer, Chief Economist at Commerzbank. lsquoThe ECB knows that from the beginning of 2018 onwards it will have bought up one third of German and Italian government bonds. It would then have reached its self-imposed upper limit, which for legal reasons it cannot simply raise, as Draghi stressed. So at some point it will in any case be forced to taper off purchases. It thus makes sense to try out a moderate reduction in the monthly purchase volume. The timing is good in that, with the attempted senate reforms in Italy failing on Monday, Italian government bonds have proved highly resilient. rdquo ldquoTo ensure that they remain so, Draghi took steps at latest press conference to reassure people. First, he announced that if need be the volume of purchases would be increased again. Second, the bank extended the pool of eligible bonds by stating that in future it could formally also buy bonds with a residual maturity of only one year. This increases the volume of bonds eligible for purchase and mathematically reduces the percentage of bonds it holds. We now estimate that the ECB would reach the 33 upper limit six months later. And finally, the bank has created the option of also buying bonds when their yield is below the deposit rate. rdquo ldquoThe ECB did everything it could to reassure the market after reducing its purchase volume. In 2018, however, it will be forced to scale down purchases gradually if it is not to exceed the legal limit. Yet this does not mean an end to the bank39s very generous monetary approach. The causes of the government debt crisis are after all more acute than ever, and there is a threat of it re-emerging. rdquo ldquoConsequently, the Eurozone cannot settle down. Growth remains unstable, and contrary to what the ECB is hoping, core inflation is unlikely to see a sustained increase. As a result, the bank can be expected to adopt aggressive countermeasures once it is forced to end its bond purchases, probably in 2018. It could, for example, offer the commercial banks a long-term tender with a maturity of around five years. This would enable banks in the southern Eurozone countries to buy up their own bonds with cheap ECB money, taking over from the ECB as buyers. So sadly, it does not mark the beginning of the end of far too relaxed a monetary policy. rdquo 09:42 USD/CAD extends the drop, approaches 1.3100 The Canadian dollar remains on a firm fashion vs. its American peer on Monday, dragging USD/CAD to the vicinity of the 1.3100 handle, fresh session lows. USD/CAD lower on WTI gains CAD is deriving extra support from the rally in crude oil prices, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate hovering over fresh 17-month tops above the 54.00 mark following the recent agreement between non-OPEC producers no cut the oil output by nearly 560K bpd. In addition, the buck is trading almost unchanged so far today amidst rising cautiousness in light of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the likeliness of a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday. In addition, and as shown by the latest CFTC report, CAD speculative net shorts remained in the area of multi-week lows, while Open Interest dropped to the lowest level since mid-October on the week to December 6. USD/CAD significant levels As of writing the pair is losing 0.52 at 1.3117 facing the next support at 1.3063 (200-day sma) ahead of 1.3002 (low Oct.19) and finally 1.2996 (low Sep.29). On the other hand, a break above 1.3193 (100-day sma) would open the door to 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo of the 2016 drop) and then 1.3357 (high Dec.5). 09:40 GBP/JPY darting back towards 146.00 handle The GBP/JPY cross was seen building on to its recent break-out momentum above the very important 200-day SMA resistance and is now inching closer to over 6-month highs touched last week. Currently trading around 145.80 region, testing session peak, the cross extended its near-term bullish trajectory, and after advancing for eight consecutive weeks, gained fresh traction on Monday amid prevalent risk-on mood in wake of weekend deal over oil output cut between OPEC and non-OPEC members. Even from technical perspective, sustained trading above 200-day SMA, for the first time in 2016, is suggestive of a bullish break-out and has thus increased possibilities of continuation of the pair39s appreciating move in the near-term. Technical levels to watch On the upside, last week39s multi-month high near 146.00 handle is likely to act as immediate resistance above which the pair seems to dart towards 147.00 round figure mark before eventually heading towards its next major resistance near 147.95-148.00 region. On the flip side, 145.00 psychological mark now becomes immediate support to defend, which if broken might trigger a corrective slide back towards 200-day SMA support near 143.30 region, with 144.40 and 144.00 mark acting as intermediate support levels. 09:30 BOJ likely to upgrade economic view next week - RTRS Sources Reuters quotes sources familiar with the matter, noting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials are likely to upgrade economic view next week, reflecting optimistic economic view. Reuters sources also noted that the BOJ officials think global trade emerging from doldrums and they seem encouraged by signs of recovery in Japanese private consumption. 09:28 USDCAD weaker but decline perhaps losing momentum - Scotiabank Analysts at Scotiabank notes that the USDCAD retains a soft undertone after two weeks of steady losses. ldquoShort-term charts do suggest that the USDrsquos slide is losing momentum (a descending wedge on the hourly chart and small, inside range on the 6-hour chart) but there is scantmdashas in nomdashsign of a reversal in the daily trend lower at the moment. Spot has lost important support in the low/mid 1.32 area this week but signs of a slowing in the decline is coming a little ahead of the 76.4 retracement of the Oct/Nov rally at 1.3145.rdquo ldquoWe note important, long-term support below here at 1.3090/00, where the base of the broader USD bull trend currently resides. Short-term trend momentum signals are aligned bearishly for the USD, suggesting the USD may struggle to improve significantly at the moment. We think the USD needs to get back above 1.3240/50 in order to stabilize or improve from here. rdquo 09:24 NZD/USD targeting 0.7200 this week - Westpac The stalled US dollar allows NZrsquos strong fundamentals (referenced by RBNZ Governor Wheeler) to come to the fore of the NZD/USD market, targeting 0.7200 this week suggests Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoDairy prices are an important medium term influence on the NZD, but only a weak influence short term. Still, the 95 rise in WMP since Feb is significant, resulting so far in an increase in the farmer milk payout from 4.25/kg to 6.00. All else constant, the higher dairy prices should eventually boost the NZD. rdquo ldquoTechnically, there may be some resistance near term at around 0.7200 which is previous trend support. However daily momentum has flipped to positive so the risks are for even higher during the week ahead. rdquo 09:20 JPY traders put their shorts on - Scotiabank CFTC positioning report covering data up to Tuesday December 6 highlighted the fact that speculative investors turned net short (barely) JPY for the first time in 2016 notes Research Team at Scotiabank. ldquoThis weekrsquos update suggests that futures traders did little else but pile on JPY shorts this week. In aggregate, broader sentiment is the most bullish USD since the start of the year. Overall positioning long the USD rose USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday to reach USD29.7bn, the biggest bull bet on the USD since January. rdquo ldquoThe JPY trade accounted for all of that increase investors were only small short JPY last week but lifted positioning aggressively through Tuesday to stake out a net short of USD3.7bnmdashan increase on the week of 34k contracts from basically flat. The bearish positioning swing over the past three months is the largest in four years and reflects the sharp deterioration in JPY sentiment as US-Japan long-term yield spreads widen to the biggest yield premium for the USD since 2010.rdquo ldquo EUR sentiment was more or less stable in the week net EUR shorts remain significant and still represent the biggest single bear bet on the USD and net short exposure was trimmed only modestly running into the ECB meeting. Net GBP shorts were cut slightly this week and while net shorts were built in the NZD and CHF, the change and net positioning is minor. rdquo ldquo CAD sentiment remains largely negative net exposure was reduced very slightly in the week as both gross shorts and longs pared exposure. rdquo 09:17 Forex Today: USD/JPY hits new 10-months tops in Asia, FOMC - Key The Asian markets opened the Big week on a bullish note, with risk-on moods prevalent across Asia amid rallying oil prices, in wake of weekendrsquos oil output deal reached between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Hence, the yen emerged the weakest amid non-existent safe-haven flows, while broad based US dollar upside consolidation drove moves across the fx space. Looking ahead, the FOMC interest rate decision remains the much-awaited and highly influential event of this week, which will set the tone for the markets for the balance of this holiday-thinned month. In the meantime, markets will take cues from the Chinese data dump, UK CPI, US retail sales and BOE Carneyrsquos speech. Later today, we have a data-empty EUR and US calendar, and hence, oil-driven market sentiment will continue to influence fx pairs. Main topics in Asia Oil: what a mover, to highest levels since July 201539s glut sell-off from 56 Oil is much higher in early Asia on the back of the weekend news with a gap through 52.00 and has reached a high of 54.31 in WTI so far. NZIER: Forecasters have revised up their NZ growth and inflation forecasts The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) published a forecast from economists for the NZ economy on Monday, with the forecasts for growth and inflation revised upwards. UKrsquos BCC: UK 39s current GDP growth rate won39t last ndash BBC News The UKrsquos British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) upgraded its 207 growth forecasts for the UK economy, although warned that higher growth prospects are unsustainable in wake of uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship. BOJ quotmay soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007quot - WSJ The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ran a story over the weekend, noting that Japanese central bank the BOJ may soon have to resort to tightening for the first time since 2007 in wake of higher inflation expectations from the Trumprsquos presidency. BOJ tapering sees bond buying slow toward 70 trillion yen - BBG Bloomberg carried an article this Monday, noting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) technically have retained their target for the annual increase in government bond holdings at 80 trillion yen (699 billion), there are signs the buying may come in closer to 70 trillion yen. Key focus for the day ahead EUR/USD under pressure, eyes on 1.0505 ndash Commerzbank Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair remains poised for a re-visit to recent lows at 1.0505. PBOCrsquos Sheng: Hike in interest rates is unlikely in China An advisor to the People39s Bank of China (PBOC), Sheng Songcheng, crossed the wires last minutes, via Bloomberg, noting that an interest rate hike is unlikely in China. Another repatriation wave into the USD - Westpac The US presidential election has given fresh impetus to another repatriation tax holiday for US corporate earnings held offshore notes Research Team at Westpac and they expect that the US equities and the USD will be the main beneficiaries, mostly in 2018. Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank said that it seems like we can add the Fedrsquos annual hike to the calendar as a recurring event in December. 09:04 AUD/USD recovers back above 0.7450 level The AUD/USD pair caught fresh bids at lower level and recovered over 25-pips from session low level near 0.7430 region. Currently trading around 0.7455-60 region, weekend deal between OPEC and non-OPEC member trigger a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment across global financial markets and is seen supporting the bid tone surrounding riskier / higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie. Moreover, a subdued greenback price-action, as markets cautiously await for the Fed monetary policy decision on Wednesday, is further supportive of the pair39s recovery on the first trading day of the week. With a relatively empty economic docket . broader market risk sentiment would remain a key determinant of the pair39s movement on Monday. However, firming expectations that the Fed would certainly raise interest rates on Wednesday, coupled with growing speculations of fast rate-tightening cycle next year, is likely to restrict any sharp up-move and the pair might remain confined within its near-term trading range. Technical levels to watch On a sustained move above 0.7465 level (session peak), the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt to conquer 0.7500 psychological mark above which the momentum could get extended towards the very important 200-day SMA resistance near 0.7530 region. On the downside, decisive break below 0.7440-30 support (session low) seems to drag the pair immediately towards 0.7415-10 region ahead of 0.7400 round figure mark. 09:02 AUD/USD should test the 0.7577 - Westpac AUD/USD should test the 100dma at 0.7577 in the week ahead, aided by a softer USD post-FOMC meeting expects Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoAUD/USD trading ranges have narrowed of late, consistent with support from key commodity prices (spot iron ore gt80, coking coal 300) but upside is limited by lacklustre domestic data, simmering volatility in Asian capital flows and the US dollarrsquos underpinnings from the looming Fed rate hike. rdquo ldquoQ3 was weak across the board but home building and public spending at least should rebound in Q4. Another poor jobs reading would reinforce the gloomy domestic theme. Yet AUD has absorbed bad news recently with insulation from the lack of market desire to price in RBA rate cut risk, given its patience over inflation and the global mood. rdquo 09:01 Romania Consumer Price Index dipped from previous -0.4to -0.7 in November 08:59 USD/JPY should rise to 120 by end-2017 - Nomura Research Team at Nomura explains that if the Fed raises rates in December and carries out two additional rate hikes in 2017, as Nomurarsquos economists expect, USD/JPY will likely reach 120 by end-2017. ldquoUSD would tend to strengthen more in the latter half of the year, when we would know more about the Trump administrationrsquos fiscal policies. At the same time, there is considerable uncertainty about the USrsquos economic measures in 2018, and at this point we expect a neutral level of 114 at end-2018. For USD/JPY to stay above 120, we believe the US economy, which is already entering the last stage of its recovery, has to show a significant rise in productivity. rdquo ldquo BOJrsquos yield curve control to support JPY depreciation Although playing a secondary role, Japanrsquos fundamentals should also support a rise in USD/JPY, in our view. The BOJrsquos yield curve control measures have had a remarkable effect on keeping yen interest rates stable/low levels even as yields rise globally, and as the gap between yields widens, this is expected to weaken JPY. If USD/JPY nears 120, Japanrsquos inflation rate would likely rise to the mid 1 range, possibly spurring expectations in the market that the BOJ would taper its asset purchases. However, we do not expect inflation to exceed 2 as an underlying trend, and the BOJ is unlikely to take a hawkish stance during Governor Kurodarsquos term (which ends in April 2018).rdquo 08:52 EUR/USD under pressure, eyes on 1.0505 Commerzbank Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair remains poised for a re-visit to recent lows at 1.0505. ldquo EUR/USD last week briefly spiked up to 1.0875, this was exhaustive price action and attention has reverted to support at 1.0505 and 1.0467, the recent low and the March low. This remains a major break down point to parity and beyondrdquo. ldquoAbove 1.0875 would initiate a deeper retracement to 1.0910 then 1.1000 (this is not favoured) and while it would be enough to delay our bearish outlook, it is would not be enough to negate it. 08:45 PBOCs Sheng: Hike in interest rates is unlikely in China An advisor to the People39s Bank of China (PBOC), Sheng Songcheng, crossed the wires last minutes, via Bloomberg, noting that an interest rate hike is unlikely in China. He further added that rate hike is pending economic recovery. No further details have been mentioned on the same. 08:38 Gold hovering around 10-month lows Having recorded five consecutive week of losses, Gold extended its recent downward trajectory and dropped to the lowest level in over 10-month on Monday. The metal, however, has managed to pull back from session lows and is currently trading with mild weakness around 1157 region. Firming expectations of an eventual Fed rate-hike action this week has been curbing flows towards the non-yielding precious metal. Moreover, anticipated higher interest rates in the US has been the driving the US Dollar higher and is also weighing on dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. Adding to this, weekend oil output cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC deal triggered a fresh wave of risk-on mood on Monday, which is eventually denting demand for traditional safe-haven assets and did little to halt the yellow metal39s ongoing depreciating move. Investors now anxiously await for the outcome of Fed39s two monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday. The accompanying rate-statement would provide policymakers projections for interest rates, and growth numbers, which would help investors evaluate the pace of monetary tightening next year and determine the next leg of directional move for the precious metal. Technical levels to watch Any recovery attempts now seems to confront immediate resistance near 1160 level above which the momentum could get extended towards 1169-70 horizontal resistance en-route 1173-75 resistance area. On the downside, weakness below 1154 session low support seems to drag the commodity towards 1150 support below which the metal seems to head towards testing 1140 support area. 08:35 GBP/USD upside capped by 1.2600, data, FOMC eyed The Sterling is posting marginal losses vs. the greenback at the beginning of the week, with GBP/USD sidelining below the 1.2600 handle. GBP/USD appears supported near .12580 The pair is following the generalized absence of a clear direction in the global markets, navigating within a narrow range and with gains so far limited around the critical 1.2600 barrier. Looking ahead, GBP should remain under pressure in light of the release of inflation figures for the month of November (Tuesday) and the labour market report (Wednesday), although the most salient event will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Recall that a 25 bp rate hike seems to be already fully priced in, although market participants will shift their attention to the future rate path and the potential steps by the Federal Reserve in the next year. On the positioning side, GBP speculative shorts have been trimmed to the lowest level since early August, while net shorts have retreated from record levels during the week ended on December 6 and according to the latest CFTC report. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is losing 0.02 at 1.2588 and a break below 1.2545 (low Dec.9) would expose 1.2530 (20-day sma) and then 1.2462 (55-day sma). On the flip side, the next hurdle aligns at 1.2706 (high Dec.8) followed by 1.2767 (100-day sma) and finally 1.2776 (high Dec.6). 08:34 Kazakhstan EnergyMin: 20K bpd output cut is token - RTRS Kazakhstan energy minister expressed his taken on the oil output cut deal, noting that the 20k bpd output cut agreed with OPEC is a lsquotokenrsquo, adding that they have no plans to limit output at Kashagan, Karachaganak or Tengiz projects. 08:34 USD/JPY tops 115 level, eyes on 120 now Deutsche Bank Taisuke Tanaka, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, expects the USD/JPY to top 120 if DBrsquos new US yield forecasts could materialize. ldquoThe USD/JPY has already reached our 2017 forecast level of 115. Our revised forecast of 115 announced on 15 November was based on assumed 10-year 5year, and 2-year US Treasuries yields of 2.5, 1.75, and 1.25, respectively, as of June 2017. However, and as we have repeatedly mentioned, a further overshoot is possible, depending on the degree of autonomy for the macropolicy Mr. Trump has committed to. rdquo ldquoOur economist team has further raised the US economic growth forecasts, to 3.0 for 2017 and 3.3 for 2018. They state that in the near term, growth will likely be considerably above 4 on a quarterly basis, and could reach 5 for 12 quarters. He even says that these forecasts are conservative, and that if they prove incorrect US GDP would be on course to top our expectations. rdquo ldquoOur US interest rate strategist has raised their US Treasuries yield forecasts to 3.60, 2.75, and 1.30 (same maturities as above) as of June 2017. As of 15 November, we assumed a rapid rally driven by the Trump market and set our USD/JPY forecast at 115 based mainly on five-year yield. However, the scenario that these new US yield forecasts could materialize suggests the USD/JPY to top 120 (although we have not yet officially revised our USD/JPY forecast).rdquo ldquoThis week, we look for the BoJ Tankan business conditions DIs (to be announced on 14 December) to show some improvement following the Trumpdriven market rally, which would confirm risk-friendly market sentiment. The FOMC is expected to decide on a rate hike on 14 December, and this would also be a clear support for the USD/JPY. However, even this rate hike by the Fed does not look particularly important for current USD/JPY trading. rdquo ldquoThe market has already factored in several rate hikes over the next 1-2 years, so this week39s anticipated hike is only a small step. When looking at the USD/JPY over the next few months, we need to consider both an overshoot and a correction following the rapid rally. However, the trend is clearly upward. rdquo 08:29 NZD/JPY pair should head towards the next resistance at 83.40 - Natixis Research Team at Natixis suggests that the NZD/JPY outlook remains favourable, as an ascending channel remains in evidence in the daily chart and an upward bubble is still developing in the weekly chart. ldquoUnder these conditions, the pair should head towards the next resistance at 83.40 (upper bound of descending channel in place since December 2014).rdquo ldquoA breakout above this resistance would instil new upward momentum, opening the way for a lasting rebound towards 84.70 (61.8 Fibonacci retracement of 94.08-69.04 downward wave from December 2014 to June 2016) before 86.30 (upper band of monthly Bollinger).rdquo ldquoTake advantage of any pullbacks towards 80.70 to buy the NZD/JPY, with as major target 86.30 (setting the stop loss below 79.40).rdquo 08:25 Oil: The first cut is not always the deepest - ANZ Philip Borkin, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that in a surprise move, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to cut oil production even more than what was agreed with its OPEC counterparts last month. ldquoFollowing hot on the heels of an announcement by a number of non-OPEC countries over the weekend (11 in total, including Russia and Mexico) to cut production by 558k barrels per day, the Saudi oil minister stated that ldquoI can tell you with absolute certainty that effective January 1 wersquore going to cut and cut substantially to be below the level we have committed to on November 30.rdquo Clearly all eyes will be on how oil prices take this latest news, but one would have to think it will be price supportive, which could therefore have wider implications for the likes of the broader commodity picture, commodity currencies, energy stocks and market-based measures of inflation expectations to start off the week. rdquo ldquoBut how significant a rally are we talking Well the fact that 1) the oil market still has a large inventory overhang to work through 2) shale oil producers continue to wait in the wings for any decent price bounce and 3) history has taught us to be a little skeptical given non-compliance to such agreements, it is hard to see oil prices surging meaningfully higher just yet. rdquo 08:24 Russian OilMin Novak: Oil prices between 50-60/bbl comfortable for Russian budget Russian energy minster Novak is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that the oil-price range between 50-60/bbl is in line with the Russian budget. 08:19 EUR/USD consolidates the Asian recovery ahead of FOMC week The recovery in the EUR/USD pair from near 2016 lows lost legs just shy of 1.0570, with the bulls now struggling hard to retain the bids as we progress towards the European opening bells. EUR/USD back above daily pivot at 1.0544 Currently, EUR/USD turns positive near 1.0560, although finds fresh sellers lurking just ahead of the last. The main currency pair paused its recent losing streak and jumped back on the bids amid an extended phase of bullish consolidation seen in the greenback across the board, after last weekrsquos rally in light of monetary policy divergence tilting in favor of the Fed and the buck. The recovery in the major looks fragile and short-lived as the US dollar is expected to rule the roost going forward, with a 25bps Fed rate hike priced-in by investors. While markets also continue to digest the dovish guidance provided by the ECB last week. Ahead of the FOMC decision due in the second-half of this week, markets will look forward to the German ZEW sentiment and US retail sales data for fresh incentives on the pair. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0607 (5-DMA). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0621 (20-DMA) and from there to 1.0642 (10-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0526 (5-day low) below which 1.0503 (multi-month low) and 1.0456 (March 2015 low) could be tested. 08:16 USDCAD: Buckle up amp get long - TDS Mazen Issa, Senior FX Strategist at TDS, suggests to enter a long USDCAD position enter at 1.3150, target of 1.3650, stop-loss of 1.2900. ldquoSince USDCAD failed to sustain a break above 1.3600 ( 50 Fibo level from 2016 high/lows) on Nov 15th, price action has been notably heavy. We have long viewed the risks around USDCAD tilt higher from a fundamental perspective, but augured for patience despite attractive valuations. We think that turning point is near. rdquo ldquoThe 1.3100/50 area has acted as a key pivot zone for USDCAD. We think a re-test of this area offers a cleaner and more attractive technical entry point reinforced with solid trend-line support to re-establish firm USDCAD longs. While the CAD has been one of the better contained currencies within the G10 complex since the US electionmdasha point that should not be dismissedmdashwe think it will be difficult for the CAD to detether itself from a firm USD backdrop. rdquo ldquoWhile not our base case, we think that another BoC cut remains a non-trivial risk in 2017, and one that could receive consideration by mid-year. Currently, the OIS market is pricing in a modest probability of a rate hike by Q3 next year ( 7bps), which we strongly lean against, though we note a near-term catalyst to change front-end dynamics remains elusive for now. Indeed, our economists apply a subjective probability of 30-40 of a cut next year as the risks to the growth outlook remain titled to the downside: the export rotation has been uneven, business investment remains a disappointment, housing market imbalances persist and we judge the fiscal multiplier assumed by the BoC as too high. rdquo ldquoThe recent BoC statement noted that economic slack is wide in Canada compared to the US. To us, this explicit acknowledgement by the BoC cements the idea that policy will diverge for some time. rdquo ldquoOil prices are expected to grind towards 60/bbl over 2017. We think a lot of lsquogood newsrsquo post-OPEC deal is already in the price and that a Trump Presidency should keep UST yields elevated. Against this backdrop, we expect G10FX to show greater deference to rate spreads. USDCAD is no exception though a slightly higher profile for oil should limit the overshoot implied by rates. rdquo ldquoThe upcoming Fed meeting is expected to reveal a cautious tone/dovish hike. We would use this as an opportunity to scale into a USDCAD long as January nears, which tends to be the best performing month (even when the January 2015 surprise hike is excluded).rdquo 08:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) increased to -5.6 in November from previous -8.9 07:32 USD/CNY regains 6.90 as USD strengthens ahead of FOMC The Chinese currency resumed its decline versus its American counterpart on Monday, after a minor-recovery staged last Friday, as the greenback advanced sharply against its six major peers in anticipation that the Fed will hike rates by 25bps this Thursday. A trader at a big Chinese bank in Beijing, quotThe yuan faces depreciation pressure as the US dollar strengthened ahead of the expected rate hike this week. The yuan faces depreciation pressure as the US dollar strengthened ahead of the expected rate hike this week. quot The Yuan weakened per dollar also as the Chinese central bank, PBOC, lowered the Yuan fix 6.9086, 114 basis points lower than Fridayrsquos fix of 6.8972. Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair almost unchanged at 6.9077 at mid-day, flirting with daily highs of 6.9085. 07:28 CAD: One more leg down toward 1.3080 - BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the Canadian dollar was the strongest of the majors, gaining 2 against the US dollar. ldquoSteady oil prices at elevated levels and the fact that Canada39s discount on two-year money finished at the lows for the week may have been contributing factors. Typically, the Canadian dollar performs well in a strong US dollar environment. Last month, the US dollar was repulsed after testing the 50 retracement objective of the down move since the multi-year high was set at the start of the year a little below CAD1.4700.rdquo ldquoTechnical indicators are getting stretched, and the Canadian dollar strengthened six of the past seven sessions. If the move is not exhausted, there may be one more leg down toward CAD1.3080. A move back above CAD1.3220 may be the first sign that the US dollar has bottomed. rdquo 07:15 Another repatriation wave into the USD - Westpac The US presidential election has given fresh impetus to another repatriation tax holiday for US corporate earnings held offshore notes Research Team at Westpac and they expect that the US equities and the USD will be the main beneficiaries, mostly in 2018. ldquoThe incoming Trump administration, aided by a Republican-controlled Congress, is set to pursue broadbased US tax reforms. A major piece of any tax reform will be how to deal with 2.6trn in accumulated profits held offshore by US corporates. Any changes to the US tax code on this front could give a significant boost to US equities and the USD. rdquo ldquoUnlike most advanced countries, the US code taxes profits earned by the foreign subsidiary of US companies. However the tax code also allows US corporates to indefinitely reinvest overseas earnings offshore and defer paying the full 35 corporate tax rate on these profits until they are officially repatriated back the US, through a dividend or otherwise transferred back to the US parent. To avoid paying the tax US corporates have hoarded substantial sums overseas, about 2.6trn. rdquo ldquoThe US presidential election has given fresh impetus to a repatriation tax holiday as part of a broader overhaul of the US tax system. The exact timing is uncertain but itrsquos reasonable to assume that legislation will be passed in late 2017 and implemented in 2018.rdquo ldquoThe potential boost to the economy is questionable, even if the legislation requires that the funds be earmarked for hiring and investment like 2004. Payrolls and investment were solid in 2005 during the repatriation tax holiday but they were solid in 2004 and 2006 too. The current 2.6trn hoard overseas is highly concentrated in the tech, energy and pharmaceuticals industries - industries that already enjoy more free cash than they know what to do with. In any case, creative structures allow US companies to regularly access these offshore profits. For example some corporates such as Apple engage in ldquosynthetic repatriationrdquo borrowing in US capital markets against their overseas holdings to fund share buy backs and avoid paying the 35 tax. rdquo ldquoStocks will be the main winner. As in 2005, repatriated earnings are likely to be used to fund share buybacks. rdquo ldquoThe USD should be a big beneficiary too. About 30 of the stock of US earnings offshore was repatriated in 2005. Applying a similar ratio to todayrsquos 2.6trn hoard implies a hefty 780bn in repatriation. But a substantial majority of that is probably already denominated in USD. Company filings from Apple and Microsoft, the two largest holders of offshore earnings show that 80 of their combined offshore earnings are maintained in USD securities. rdquo ldquoEven so, 80 of earnings held in USD still implies a hefty 155bn in corporate demand for the USD. That is negligible compared to daily FX turnover but nonetheless represents yet another positive for the USD which is already enjoying solid support from increasing yield support and heightened EU political tail risks. The most vulnerable currencies appear to be EUR, CAD, GBP and CHF. rdquo ldquoBeyond that there could be longer term ongoing benefits for the USD. A potentially significant decline in the US corporate tax rate from 35 to 15 (Trump39s plan) or 20 (the House Republican plan) would reduce the incentive to hoard cash overseas, especially if the House Republican plan is adopted. Their policy calls for a one-time repatriation tax and then a shift to a quotterritorial systemquot of taxation, ending the US practice of taxing global earnings permanently. rdquo 07:10 USD/JPY stalls correction, re-takes 115.50 The US dollar regained poise versus its Japanese counterpart in the late-Asian trades, sending USD/JPY back higher towards multi-month highs of 115.62. USD/JPY bounces-off daily S3 support The dollar-yen pair stalled a brief downside correction from fresh 10-month highs, as the bulls fought back control amid resurgent USD demand in a risk-friendly market environment, triggered by oil-price rally and bets over an imminent Fed rate hike this week. Earlier on the day, the yen staged a tepid-recovery, knocking-off USD/JPY to 115.15 lows, in response to BOJ taper and tightening chatter. While upbeat Japanese core machinery orders also offered some respite to the yen bulls. The spot is last seen changing hands at 115.51, up 0.10 on the day. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 115.62 (multi-month high). A break above the last, the major could test 116 (zero figure) and 116.50 (psychological levels) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 115 (round number) next at 114.77 (5-DMA) and below that at 114.29 (10-DMA). 07:09 JPY and GBP losing steam against the USD BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the last session was the first since February that the US dollar remained above JPY114.00 and in fact, it made a new 10-month high near JPY115.30. ldquoThe JPY115.60 area corresponds to a 61.8 retracement of the dollar39s decline since reaching almost JPY126 in June 2015. Above there is initial potential toward JPY116.00-JPY116.20. The technical indicators have not confirmed the new dollar highs, but the momentum is strong. Initial support is seen near JPY114.50.rdquo ldquoWhile the yen was the weakest currency last week, shedding almost 1.5, sterling was just behind it with a 1.25 decline. Sterling snapped a two-week advance. Disappointing data, broad dollar strength, and the UK parliament39s support for the government39s timetable of triggering Article 50 took a toll. Early in the week, sterling had reached 1.2775, its highest level since just before the flash crash, but just shy of the 100-day moving average ( 1.2795). It has not traded above that moving average since the referendum. The 1.25 area offers initial support, and a break could see 1.24 in short order. A break of 1.23 would likely signal the end of the two-month correction. The RSI has turned down. The MACDs and Slow Stochastics may rollover near week. rdquo 07:03 NZD/AUD to target the 0.9700 area during the weeks ahead - Westpac NZD/AUD cross retains upward momentum and targets the 0.9700 area during the weeks ahead, expects Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoThat area marked a peak in July and should at least provide some resistance to this rally. rdquo ldquoThe AUD has underperformed the NZD recently, despite AU commodities easily outperforming NZrsquos. Part of the reason is undoubtedly skepticism that AU commodities can sustain the run. Another is the recent run of disappointing AU economic news. rdquo ldquoWe suspect the weak Q3 GDP result last week (-0.5 qoq) was a rogue print, with housing construction and public infrastructure sure to rebound. Export data has so far lagged the surge in commodity prices so we should get some good news on that front too. rdquo ldquoAfter the last weekrsquos dismal GDP data, any clues on a better Q4 will be watched closely. This week on Tue itrsquos Nov NAB business confidence, and on Wed we see Dec consumer sentiment from Westpac/MI but the market focus will be Nov labour data (Thu). Another poor jobs reading would reinforce the gloomy domestic theme. rdquo ldquo 3 months: Eventually we see NZD/AUD starting to reflect the outperformance of AU commodities as well as better economic data ahead. We expect a retest of the 0.9300 area which was visited a number of times during the second half of 2016.rdquo ldquoOur fair value model suggests the cross is around 10 overvalued at present, based on the movement to date in respective commodity prices and interest rates. Wersquore not expecting the cross to snap back to fair value anytime soon, since itrsquos been overvalued for much of this year, but it should at least start to move in that direction. rdquo 06:47 USD/CAD consolidates bearish gap amid 5 WTI rally The Canadian dollar keeps the range near two-month highs against its American counterpart in the late-Asian trades, with USD/CAD hovering ahead of 1.31 handle. USD/CAD dumped on Oil rally Currently, the USD/CAD pair is last seen exchanging hands at 1.3123, down -0.50 so far, having posted fresh two-month troughs at 1.3115 in early deals. The major opened with a bearish gap in Asia this Monday, as oil prices spiked over 4 after the Asian traders cheered the oil output cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC deal was reached over the weekend. While Saudi Arabiarsquos commitment for aggressive cuts also added to easing oversupply worries, bolstering the bids for the black gold, and thus, eventually lifting the demand for the resource-linked Loonie. Oil is Canadarsquos top export product. The bearish momentum seen behind USD/CAD is also partly attributed to the subdued trading activity in the US dollar against its main competitors. Looking ahead, the major will get influenced by the sentiment around oil markets and upcoming US macro releases due on the cards this week. While the main market moving event for the spot this week remains the FOMC rate decision. USD/CAD Technical Levels To the upside, the next resistances are seen near 1.3157 (daily R1) and 1.3172 (5-DMA) and from there to 1.3200 (round number). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.3100 (round figure) and below that at 1.3085 (200-DMA) and at 1.3050 (Oct 18 low). 06:35 EUR: Bounces from the 1.05 level appear to be getting more shallow - BBH Euro bounces from the 1.05 level appear to be getting more shallow as technical indicators are not particularly helpful given the sharp swings in both directions in recent days, notes Research Team at BBH. ldquoThat said, the euro39s squeeze up to almost 1.0875 likely completed the upside correction we had been anticipating. We expect the 1.05 support area yield, with the euro heading toward 1.0430-1.0450 before corrective pressure emerges again. If the 1.05 is not broken, momentum traders will be sorely disappointed, and a bounce back to 1.07 would not surprise. rdquo 06:33 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1 to 0.2 in October 06:32 NZD/USD to remain in a 0.7000-0.7220 range during the week ahead - Westpac After a brief pop above 0.7200, NZD/USD hasnrsquot made any further headway despite a continuing stream of good economic news as noted by the Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoThat is because the US dollarrsquos strength has trumped NZ fundamentals. We expect NZD/USD to remain in a 0.7000-0.7220 range during the week ahead, with the Fed meeting posing upside risks. rdquo ldquoNZrsquos event calendar this week is unlikely to ruffle the NZD, consisting of second-tier data only. We have Q3 manufacturing activity, Q3 building work, manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, and REINZ housing market. The following week we get the next GDT dairy auction which will be watched given WMP has risen 90 since Feb. Futures pricing is predicting a 2 rise, which may not be enough to get a NZD response given last weekrsquos 4 did not. Indeed, while there is a relationship between dairy prices and the NZD over the long run, it is weak at best over the short run. rdquo ldquoThere is a political event of note. Last week saw the unexpected resignation of John Key as Prime Minister after eight years in office, and following a caucus vote the previous Deputy Prime Minister Bill English takes the reins from today. Mr English has been Finance Minister for the past eight years, and is likely to maintain his relatively conservative approach to fiscal management. But the loss of a fairly popular political leader in the run up to an election does add an additional layer of uncertainty to the outlook. And at the margin, it has raised the odds of a snap election. rdquo ldquoHowever as noted above, NZD/USD is mostly a US story at present. which means we will be watching US events closely for NZD/USD clues during the week ahead. On that score, the highlight event will be the Fed meeting on 14 Dec, with a hike a near certainty (and more than fully priced). The statement should be balanced, rather than hawkish, and officials are unlikely to lift growth or dot plot projections until more details on Trumprsquos tax and infrastructure plans emerge. If the US dollar pauses or pulls back in response to the FOMC announcement, then NZD/USD will rally. rdquo ldquo 3 months: We expect the US dollar to eventually resume its uptrend as the US economy improves further and US interest rates rise further, and the FOMC membership becomes more hawkish. That should eventually cause NZD/USD to decline to 0.70 or lower. rdquo 06:26 USD: Finishing the year on a firm note - BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the US dollar is finishing the year on a firm note as i t rose to a 10-month high against the yen before the weekend while the euro remains within spitting distance of the bottom of its two-year range near 1.05. ldquoOver the past month, dollar pullbacks have been generally shallow and brief. rdquo ldquoThis week39s FOMC meeting is the last big event of the year. The dollar may continue to be well supported ahead of the meeting where a rate hike is fully discounted. The Fed officials may revise up growth and inflation forecasts, and still not take into account the extent of fiscal stimulus that may be delivered. The President-elect39s team has indicated the initial economic focus will be on trade, not taxes or stimulus. rdquo ldquoNevertheless, investors anticipate both fiscal stimulus and a more hawkish configuration at the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the ECB will be expanding its balance sheet by 780 bln euros next year, and the BOJ39s extraordinary monetary policy is set to continue, augmented by modest fiscal stimulus. Also, while many emerging-market central banks have been reducing their Treasury holdings to support their currencies, private sector demand has been strong, with European investor interest reported. Americans appear to be liquidating some of their holdings for foreign bonds. Foreign investors have returned to the Japanese equity market, but it appears to be mostly on a currency-hedged basis. rdquo ldquoWe had anticipated the US Dollar Index to fall to 99.70 and possibly 99.00. It recorded a low a little below 99.45 in the knee-jerk response to what appeared at ECB tapering. It quickly rebounded, and before the weekend was testing a short-term down trendline drawn off the November 24, November 30, and December 5 high. It was found near 101.55 before the weekend and 101.30 at the end of next week. The speed of the Dollar Index 39s recovery means that MACDs and Slow Stochastics have not crossed higher to generate new buy signals, though they may turn early next week. Remember, the 101.80 area is the 61.8 retracement of the decline since from the 121.00 level seen in July 2001.rdquo 06:22 BOJ tapering sees bond buying slow toward 70 trillion yen - BBG Bloomberg carried an article this Monday, noting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) technically have retained their target for the annual increase in government bond holdings at 80 trillion yen (699 billion), there are signs the buying may come in closer to 70 trillion yen. Data compiled by Bloomberg show, for the year so far, the BOJ bonding buying annualized is 71.7 trillion yen, versus 75.3 trillion over the same period last year. Chief market economist at Nomura Securities Co, quotThe BOJ is not going to need to purchase 80 trillion yen to keep the yield curve under control. At some point in time they are going to drop the language on 80 trillion yen. quot 05:59 Nikkei back in positive territory on YTD basis Japanrsquos Nikkei index is back into the positive territory on year-to-date basis. The amazing turnaround has been single handedly fueled by the drop in the Japanese Yen. The index had dropped from the January high of 18,951 to hit a low of 14,864 in June. During the same time period, Dollar-Yen dropped from 122.00 to 99.00 levels. However, the USD/JPY pair turned higher in the second half of this year. The uptrend gathered pace after Trump victory. The spot is now eyeing 115.00 levels. Consequently, the Nikkei index rose to a fresh 2016 high of 19,281 levels. 05:45 Ten-year Treasury yield rises to highest since June The yield on the benchmark Ten-year treasury yield rose to 2.497, its highest since June 2015 as oil rose to 16-month high on back of the first global oil deal since 2001. At the time of writing, the 10-yr yield traded at least 2.5 basis points higher on the day. Meanwhile, at the short-end of the curve, the 2-year yield rose 1.6 basis points to 1.149. Oil rallied 5 in Asia after the non-OPEC members cut 558K barrels per day. In response, Saudi Arabia it stands ready to cut more than what was agreed on November 30. The resulting risk-on in the markets reduced demand for the treasuries. Furthermore, rally in oil is also likely to push up inflation expectations, which too is supporting the gains in the treasury yields. 05:42 BOJ may soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007 - WSJ The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ran a story over the weekend, noting that Japanese central bank the BOJ may soon have to resort to tightening for the first time since 2007 in wake of higher inflation expectations from the Trumprsquos presidency. One of central bankingrsquos most aggressive easersmdashthe Bank of Japan (BOJ)mdashmay soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007. In a Trump-fueled turnaround, the BOJ may have to lift its 10-year government-bond target from the recently set zero Triggered by expectations that his policies would boost U. S. growth, inflation and interest rates So far, that has been good for Japan, where the weaker yen is brightening exporters39 prospects, helping send Tokyo stocks to 11-month highs 05:30 NZD/USD rebounds to 50-DMA, focus shifts to China data dump The NZD/USD pair extends its recovery into mid-Asia, and now looks to take-out 50-DMA barrier located at 0.7146 amid a broadly subdued US dollar and rally in oil prices. NZD/USD supported at daily S1 Currently, the NZD/USD pair trades 0.11 higher at 0.7143, flirting with session tops reached at 0.7146 in the last hour. The Kiwi is on a roll higher, extending its winning streak into a fourth day today, having staged a solid recovery from a dip below 0.70 handle. The NZD/USD pair remains well bid as investors take the yield-advantage amid a better sentiment towards risk assets, in wake of an oil output cut deal struck between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers over the weekend. However, it remains to be seen whether the major can sustain the ongoing bullish run, as focus now shifts towards tomorrowrsquos Chinese data dump and upcoming FOMC interest rates decision, which is expected to have a significant impact on NZD/USD. NZD/USD Levels to consider To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7203 (100-DMA), above which it could extend gains to 0.7226 (multi-week high) and from there to 0.7250 (psychological levels). To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7109 (200-DMA) and from there to at 0.7091 (20-DMA), below which 0.7065 (Dec 5 low) would be tested. 05:16 Moodys on NZ: Half-year economic amp fiscal update for 2016-17 demonstrates strong public finances The US-based ratings agency, Moodyrsquos Investors Service, published its latest report on the Government of New Zealand . titled lsquoGovernment of New Zealand (NZ): Strong Public Finances, Robust Economic Growth Bolster Sovereign Credit Profilersquo on Monday. Key Points from the report: Government forecasts average annual GDP growth of 3.5 over 2017 and 2018, is slightly higher than Moody39s forecast and points to some downside risk to the revenue projections New Zealand will remain among the fastest growing economies in Moody39s Aaa-rated universe The half-year economic and fiscal update (HYEFU) for 2016-2017 demonstrates strong public finances, providing the government with significant financial flexibility to face negative shocks such as the Kaikoura earthquake Moody39s expects policies and reforms that foster economic growth and maintain sound public finances to remain a key focus under a new leadership 05:16 GBP/USD snaps four-day losing streak The GBP/USD pair snapped a four-day losing streak in Asia amid oil-led risk-on action in the markets. The pair ticked higher from the session low of 1.2570 but failed to chew trough offers around 1.26 handle. The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) lifted 2017 GDP forecast to 1.1 from the previous figure of 1.0. Meanwhile, 2018 GDP forecast was revised lower to 1.4. However, the markets did not take note of the BCC forecasts and remain at the mercy of the oil price action, given the empty economic calendar across the globe. GBP/USD Technical Levels The spot was last seen trading around 1.2580 levels. A break above 1.26 (psychological level hourly 50-MA) would expose the hourly 200-MA level and hourly 100-MA level of 1.2617 and 1.2636 respectively. A violation there could yield re-test of 1.2704 (hourly chart hurdle). On the lower side, breach of Asian session low of 1.2570 would expose support at 1.2548 (Aug 12 low), under which the losses could be extended to 1.25 (zero figure). 05:01 Indicators signaling USD/CAD is oversold While intraday moving averages point at a continued USD/CAD depreciation, the latest momentum readings raise the odds of a minor throwback. USD/CAD appears primed for a pullback, at least towards overhead resistance established by the 50-period simple moving average. Consistent declines locked RSI below the 50 mark for most of the last 3 weeks. More noticeable was the recent sell off which led the oscillator plunge below its 25 level. This showed that market participants are keen on selling. In the context of a prolonged down trend, the 4-hour RSI looks now very heavy on the sell side so it could be prone to a squeeze back higher. However, the risks are but still skewed to the downside. 05:01 USD/JPY retreats from 10-month tops, but keeps 115.00 Having peaked at 10-month highs at Tokyo open, the USD/JPY pair took a breather and came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour amid a minor-correction seen in the US dollar across the board. USD/JPY trades above all major DMAs The dollar-yen pair is seen retracing a part of the intraday rally to new ten-month tops, largely on the back of stalled US treasury yields buying, which triggered a corrective slide in the US dollar against its main peers. Also, the major tracks a minor-retreat in the Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index now reverting towards daily lows. Calendar-wise, we had the Japanese core machinery data, which came in much stronger-than expected, and therefore, the upbeat Japanese data also could have helped rescue the JPY bulls. However, the retreat remains restricted amid persisting risk-on sentiment, spurred by weekendrsquos OPEC and non-OPEC oil output deal agreement. While expectations of Fed tightening this week also keeps the sentiment buoyed around the USD/JPY pair. The spot is last seen changing hands at 115.25, reversing from 10-month highs of 115.62, down -0.10 on the day. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 115.62 (multi-month high). A break above the last, the major could test 116 (zero figure) and 116.50 (psychological levels) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 115 (round number) next at 114.77 (5-DMA) and below that at 114.29 (10-DMA). 04:48 OPEC s global producer pact could signal oil market metamorphosis Platts SampP Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets, believes ldquojoint output cut pact highlights a show of strength and unity across global producers that could mark a new era in cooperation aimed at bringing stability back to global oil marketsrdquo. Buoyed by the non-OPEC deal, Saudi Arabia said it could cut below the psychological figure of 10 million barrels per day. Platts says, ldquoSaudi is making it clear to the global market: the kingdom wants the output deal it negotiated with major producing countries to stick, even if it has to cut production more than it already committed to. rdquo 04:45 UKs BCC: UK s current GDP growth rate won t last BBC News The UKrsquos British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) upgraded its 207 growth forecasts for the UK economy, although warned that higher growth prospects are unsustainable in wake of uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship. ldquoThe business body expects 2.1 GDP growth this year, up from the 1.8 it forecast just three months agordquo ldquoBut uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship and higher inflation will quotdampen medium term growthquot ldquoIt expects UK GDP to grow 1.1 next year, and 1.4 in 2018rdquo ldquoHowever, its 1.1 forecast for next year would mark the weakest annual rate of growth for the UK since the 2008 financial crisisrdquo 04:38 AUD/USD lifted by Oil deal-driven risk-on The AUD/USD pair staged a solid comeback, after a weaker Asia opening, now taking the rate beyond the mid-point of 0.74 handle amid a risk-friendly market environment, underpinned by weekendrsquos oil output cut deal. AUD/USD recovers to test 10-DMA at 0.7455 Currently, the AUD/USD pair trades 0.11 higher at 0.7456, retracing from session tops placed just ahead of 5-DMA at 0.7464. The overnight rally in oil prices after markets cheered an oil output cut finally reached between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday, provided some impetus to the resourced-linked AUD. Moreover, oil deal-induced risk-on trades across the markets also collaborated to the bullish sentiment around the higher-yielding emerging market currency, while the US dollar remains broadly subdued. Further, analysts at Goldman Sachs lifted copper prices forecasts for next year, which also helped the Aussie to take on a minor-recovery from a brief dip to 0.7430 witnessed in the opening trades. However, further upside looks limited as markets turn cautious stepping into the FOMC week, with a 25-bps hike already priced-in by investors. AUD/USD Levels to watch The pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7505 (Nov 17 high) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 0.7575 (Nov 16 high) and 0.7600 (zero figure). On the flip side, the immediate support located 0.7400 (round number). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7385 (key support) and below that at 0.7366 (Dec 1 low). 04:36 Goldman Sachs upgrades Iron Ore and Copper forecasts Iron ore rally post-Trump victory has caught most investment banks on the wrong side of the trade. The metal now trades around 80 per tonne, which is significantly higher than the most calendar 2017 forecasts. Goldman Sachs has hiked its three-month forecast to 65 per tonne. The investment banker has also revised its copper forecast for three months, six months, and 12 months higher to 5800, 6200 and 5600 respectively. 04:23 Goldman Sachs: OPEC, non-OPEC announced oil cuts smaller than expected Analysts at Goldman Sachs present their afterthoughts after an output cut deal was finally reached between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers over the weekend. Key Headlines via Bloomberg: Announced cuts are smaller than expected Implementation remains uncertain Nevertheless, the agreement removes the uncertainty surrounding participation of non-OPEC nations to OPEC reduction Saudi Arabia will help achieve a normalization of inventories. even if it requires a larger unilateral cut The cuts support the bank39s H1 (2017) WTI price forecast of 55/barrel GS bases this forecast on effective 1m b/d cuts Greater compliance to the 1.6 target is therefore an upside risk to price forecast ldquoBetter compliance than bank expects would initially lead to higher prices -- with full compliance adding 6/bbl to its price forecast. but then there would be a bigger producer responserdquo 04:15 China officials: Target for economic growth next year should be 6.5 The State Information Center, an official think tank affiliated with Chinarsquos National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), noted its expectations for the Chinese growth targets in an article published in the China Securities Journal. Key Quotes via Reuters: ldquoThe State Information Center says the target for economic growth next year should be 6.5 and exceeding that level is very likelyrdquo quotIn 2017, China39s economic operations will need to intensify efforts to alleviate deep-seated contradictions and structural problemsrdquo 04:14 Further gains in USD contingent on meaningful fiscal stimulus Goldman Sachs The Dollar index has already rallied from 96.00 levels to 102.12 the highest level since 2003 on the back of heightened odds of a steeper Fed rate hike path in 2017. Research team at Goldman Sachs believes the greenback could strengthen further if there is meaningful fiscal stimulus in the US economy, which is already close to full capacity. Goldman sees Trade Weighted Index (TWI) USD to appreciate close to 7 against the majors over the next 12 months. 04:08 NZIER: Forecasters have revised up their NZ growth and inflation forecasts The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) published a forecast from economists for the NZ economy on Monday, with the forecasts for growth and inflation revised upwards. Forecasters have revised up their growth and inflation forecasts Annual inflation is expected to reach the RBNZ39s 2 mid-point target by March 2019 Continued strong migration-led population growth expected to boost household spending and residential construction further over the next few years Businesses are also feeling more confident, and are more optimistic about investment and hiring Underlying trend improvement in employment demand Unemployment rate expected to fall to 4.6 by March 2018 Skills shortages becoming more apparent, thus wage growth has been revised up Forecasts range from 1.7 to 3.2 for the year to March 2020 04:01 USD/NOK hints at dip buying The hourly 50-period SMA broke through the slower 200-period SMA, adding credence to the recent bullish USD/NOK profile. If USD/NOK spot falls closer to the level where the moving averages crossed, then buyers might see it as an opportunity to reenter. Furthermore, a convincing break through the 50 SMA signals a neutral tone, shifting negative below the 200 SMA. 03:57 EUR/USD headed for turmoil on FOMC and 2017 s political outlook EUR/USD is lower again in Asia after another bazooka from the ECB last week in respect to their QE extensions, coupled with concerns over the Italian and European banking crisis that could be the New Year event instead of China this time around, both are supporting the greenback as a safe haven and a bearish outlook for the single currency, as funding currency. Analysts at Rabobank, in their recent report, said in a summary, quotRecent economic data have been in line with the Fed39s expectations. What39s more, markets have responded positively to the outcome of the elections and are pricing in a 100 probability of a December hike. So unless there is a major disruptive event between now and December 14, the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75.quot Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank In respect to the ECB, they are committed to their asset purchases programme and the dovish tone of the Draghi has fuelled speculation for parity vrs the dollar. It could be just as well due to the onset of political uncertainties taking fold next year in Euroland. Considering Draghi has extended the QE programme, albeit at a slower pace, he has done so until Dec and 2017 which means there will be plenty of cheap money around to soften the impact of German elections and subsequent volatility in the autumn of 2017. quotOn the assumption that populist parties do not prevail in next spring39s Dutch and French election, we are forecasting EUR/USD at 1.10 on a 12 mth view, quot offered analysts at Rabobank. Meanwhile, spot is currently trading at 1.0551 EUR/USD after a retreat from 1.0875 recently on the ECb decision39s initial spike, before a breakdown through the 1.0620 and the 20 day ma with focus now set on the recent low at 1.0505 and 1.0467, the March low. quotThis remains a major break down point to parity, quot explained analysts at Commerzbank. EUR/USD analysis: Yellen, Trump, and FED39s future up next 03:53 Asian stocks rally on oil deal amp Saudis whatever it takes moment Asian stock markets are having a good time this Monday morning on account of the first global oil deal since 2011 and Saudirsquos readiness to do lsquowhatever it takesrsquo to rebalance the oil markets. Japanrsquos Nikkei gained 1.3 or 247 points to 19,244. The weakness in the Japanese Yen is also driving the stock prices higher. Australiarsquos SampP/ASX 200 rose 0.34 or 18 points to 5580 levels. Oil jumped to its highest level since July 2015 after the non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output by 558K barrels per day. Following the non-OPEC deal, Saudi said it could do more cuts beyond what the level decided on November 30. The data calendar is light across the globe. Hence, oil remains at the center stage of the financial markets. 03:24 Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank said that it seems like we can add the Fedrsquos annual hike to the calendar as a recurring event in December. quotThe FOMC launched its hiking cycle in December 2015, promising to hike four times this year, but instead we are heading for another single hike in December. The minutes of the FOMC meeting of November 1-2 confirmed the now widely held view that the Fed will hike in the final month of the year. Members generally agreed that the case for a hike had continued to strengthen. But a majority of members judged that the Committee should, for the time being, await further evidence of progress toward the Fedrsquos objectives. Most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon. Some participants noted that recent Committee communications were consistent with a hike in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting. Fed Chair Yellenrsquos testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on November 17 suggested that the outcome of the elections a week earlier had not changed the mind of the FOMC. Moreover, she stressed that waiting for further evidence did not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Rather, with the unemployment rate remaining steady this year despite above - trend job gains, and with inflation continuing to run below its target, the FOMC judged that there was somewhat more room for the labor market to improve on a sustainable basis than the Committee had anticipated at the beginning of the year. With respect to the impact of the election outcome on the Fedrsquos rate path she said that there was still a lot of uncertainty about fiscal policy next year and its inflationary consequences. Since Yellenrsquos testimony, Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.2 from 2.9, while the Atlanta Fedrsquos nowcast for Q4 GDP growth stood at 2.6 on December 6. This is the pickup in growth that the FOMC was looking for in H2, after the disappointing 0.8 in Q1 and 1.4 in Q2. Whatrsquos more, the Employment Report for November showed that nonfarm payroll growth continued at a decent pace of 178K, and unemployment fell to 4.6 from 4.9. Finally, the PCE deflator ndash which is the Fedrsquos preferred measure of inflation ndash rose to 1.4 in October from 1.2 (year-on-year). So the economic data have passed the Fedrsquos three tests for a rate hike: a pickup in GDP growth, continued labor market improvement, and rising inflation. Whatrsquos more, after a very brief risk-off reaction, the financial markets have responded positively to the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. In combination with Republican majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, markets are looking forward to a substantial fiscal policy stimulus boosting the economy. The probability of a December hike priced in by the futures markets has risen to 100. So unless there is a major disruptive event between now and December 14, the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75. It remains to be seen whether the decision to hike will be unanimous. The September dot plot revealed that three participants did not expect to hike at all this year. However, not all participants have voting rights and the recent economic data ndash and the anticipated fiscal stimulus by the new administration ndash could persuade dovish voters. Given the upbeat sentiment in recent weeks, a dissent may not disturb the markets very much. However, if markets have a bad day on December 14, a dissent could make it worse. quot 03:24 Gold drops to lowest since February Gold is feeling the heat of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil output cut deal and the resulting rise in the oil prices. The metal was last seen trading 1155/Oz the lowest since February. Oil spiked more than 5 after the non-OPEC group headed by Russia agreed to cut output by 558K barrels per day. Buoyed the non-OPEC deal, Saudi said it may cut more than what was agreed on November 30. Oil rally is usually good news for the riskier assets. Consequently, investors are moving out of gold in Asia. Gold Technical Levels A break below 1142.97 (Mar 2015 low) would open doors for a sell-off to 1132.08 (Nov 2014 low). On the higher side, violation at the Asian session high of 1159.90 could yield a re-test of 1172.07 (61.8 of Dec 2015 low ndash July 2016 high). 03:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9086 vs 6.8972 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9086 vs 6.8972 03:10 USD/CNY fix projection 6.9156 from 6.8972 - Nomura Analysts at nomura offered their model1 projects for the fix. quotOur model1 projects for the fix to be 184 pips higher than the previous fix (6.9156 from 6.8972) and 151 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.9005. The basket implied change is 202 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.9207 from 6.9005). 02:59 Russias Novak cheers global oil deal Russian Energy Ministry Alexander Novak, in an exclusive interview to Bloomberg, cheered the global oil deal and said he is satisfied with the current oil prices. Novak reportedly said on Sunday that oil prices could have dropped to 30-35 per barrel, if OPEC and non-OPEC countries had not struck an output reduction deal. 02:47 AUD/JPY isnt buying the oil surge AUD/JPY, the global risk barometer, is trading sideways despite the rise in oil prices to 16-month highs on the global oil deal. The cross clocked a high of 86.07 and was last seen trading just below 86.00 levels. Fridayrsquos high stands at 86.09. Oil prices spiked after OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output for the first time since 2011. Oil rally usually bodes well for the risk assets. However, the lacklustre action in the AUD/JPY cross today could be suggesting otherwise. AUD/JPY Technical Levels A break below 85.73 (session low) would expose the downward sloping weekly 100-MA of 85.50, under which the losses could be extended to 84.33 (weekly 5-MA). On the higher side, acceptance above 86.00 could yield 86.70 (March high) and 87.00 (zero figure). 02:45 USD/JPY: better bid and about to get bidder for the 120 s USD/JPY has been a strong bid in risk-on markets while investors are backing the greenback as we head towards the end of the year and much uncertainty to come in 2017. The greenback is in demand as the world39s reserve currency while the Yen has been printed so much that it has diluted its safe-haven appeal given the weakness in the Japanese economy and divergence between the BoJ and Federal Reserve. Longer-term rate differentials (10Y spreads) continue to widen the yield gap of over 230bps last week represented the biggest yield gap for the USD since 2010. Fed funds futures continued to imply a 100 chance of a rate hike on 14 December, and two more rate hikes priced in for 2017. Fed preview: The second rate hike is coming - Commerzbank Investors are placing their money where they are predicting a better return, and that is the greenback and US stocks while bonds plummet and global yields rise in the face of reflation. Oil prices/demand and the Yen Also, worth noting, is that Japan is the world39s second largest net importer of fossil fuels and oil remains the largest source of primary energy consumption in Japan. The recent accord between non-OPEC members with OPEC members has seen a rally in oil prices at the start of this week that is not helpful to the ailing Japanese economy - a demand driven environment that this could well spark ahead of this week39s FOMC when full markets get going could weigh on the Yen further. Brent oil clocks 16-month high on first global oil pact The market has penetrated through the 115.41 key fibo level and we are in the sixth weekly decline in the Yen and we have penetrated the 200 week sma at 108.92, marching on through Feb 2016 highs and that reveals the 12039s and 2016 high of 121.68. 120.00/120.10 represents the 78.6 retracement of the move down from 2015. Break to the downside, on say the FOMC holding or a sell the fact on a hike could test the 114.80 level and 112.80 as the floor of the early Dec commencing channel support line. 02:22 Brent oil clocks 26-month high on first global oil pact Brent oil jumped to 57.50 itrsquos highest since mid July 2015 after the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday reached their first output cut deal since 2001. Non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to cut the output by 558K barrels per day. The cut is equivalent to the demand growth seen from China and India. Saudirsquos lsquowhatever it takesrsquo moment Buoyed by the non-OPEC deal, Saudi took a page out of ECB President Mario Draghirsquos book by stating it is ready to lsquodo whatever it takesrsquo ndash cut production below the level agreed on November 30hellip Even below the psychological figure of 10 million barrels per day. Consequently, oil benchmarks spiked in early Asia. Energy/Mining shares could rally Oil and Mining stocks across the globe are likely to cheer the first global oil deal since 2001. UKrsquos FTSE 100 may close-in on 7000 levels, while US indices could see another record high closing. Brent Technical Levels Brent was last seen trading around 56.60/barrel. A break above 57.70 (session high) would open doors for 58.55 (mid-Dec 2015 low). A major hurdle above the same is directly seen at 60.00. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 56.00 (zero figure) could yield a correction to 54.29 (session low), under which a major support is seen directly at 51.80 (weekly 5-MA). 02:05 USD/CAD extends bearish gap as Oil spikes through 54 WTI USD/CAD has been offered on the back of the non-OPEC accord with OPEC members that came to fruition over the weekend. It was a slow reaction in the market, but eventually oil jumped on the back of the pledge to lift the value and prices of oil in a bid to support the economies that have been hit hard by the glut of oil that started over two years ago by the 13 non-OPEC members agreed to cut crude output by 558,000bpd. That volume is in addition to the 1.2 million barrels a day in cuts from OPEC members, and this is amounting to a total of almost 2 of global oil supply - Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd. USD/CAD39s bearish trajectory is intact and has been one-way since late November, observed analysts at Scotiabank, explained that this shows no sign of stopping. quotShort-term trend momentum has strengthened and spot is heading for a test of the broader bull channel trend at 1.3090/00 that comes into focus. quot 02:02 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -1.1 to -2.1 02:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4 from previous 4.5 01:55 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY) fell from previous 14 to 2.2 01:51 Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4, above expectations (0.3) in November 01:51 Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-2.3) in November: Actual (-2.2) 01:51 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at 4.1, above expectations (1) in October 01:40 Oil: what a mover, to highest levels since July 2015 s glut sell-off from 56 Oil is much higher in early Asia on the back of the weekend news with a gap through 52.00 and has reached a high of 54.31 in WTI so far. The 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut crude output by 558,000bpd, of which Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd. This move will be in addition to the 1.2 million barrels a day in cuts from OPEC members, and this is amounting to a total of almost 2 of global oil supply. This accord between OPEC and non-OPEc producing nations is a pact designed to reduce a global oversupply of crude and subsequently lift the value and prices of oil in a bid to support the economies that have been hit hard by the glut of oil that started over two years ago. Across the board, the dollar is mixed, but losing its shine rapidly, especially vrs the oil related bloc such as the pound and the Canadian dollar. We are now at the highest levels in WTI since the summer of 2017 when prices dropped below 56 and plummeted through 51.50 eventually on the oil glut that finally took the price all the way down to 28.93 in February earlier this year. 01:19 NZD/USD: offered below 200 sma on 1hr sticks NZD/USD has continued on the offer in early Asia to start the week ahead of the FOMC as the main event for markets. NZD/USD trades below the 1hr 200-sma at 0.7127 and is testing the downside of the ascending support line from the start of December39s rally at 0.7041. Just today, the front runner, Bill English, was confirmed as Prime Minister after John Key announced his resignation last week. Also, we had net migration for October that came in at 6240, from 6340 in October with wholesale sales 1 for Q3 vrs 1.7 prior seasonally adjusted. Analysts at Westpac explained the US dollar39s extended rise recently has flipped NZD/USD momentum from positive to neutral, in a 0.7000-0.7200 range. NZD/USD 1-3 month: quotThe US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further during the months ahead, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. Against that, the NZ economy is strong and dairy prices have risen. Overall we are left with a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, targeting sub-0.70,quot - analysts at Westpac offered. 00:41 GBP/USD: finding a bid in the open on a mixed dollar and despite Brexit w/e news GBP/USD has opened on the bid in early Asia while the dollar is mixed across the board - strong vrs the yen, euro and Aussie. Market wrap: US dollar and US rates helped by data - Westpac The pound has opened with a bid from lows of 1.2569 with a high up to test 1.26 the figure. The weekend news hasn39t offered anything significant that can be related to the gaps across the board and mixed outlook, but the pound is robust, despite PM May39s next challenge in respect of Brexit while opponents are launching a fresh legal action to upend her plans for leaving the EU and triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. The campaigners will be appealing to the high court in an effort to keep Britain in the single market and give MP39s powers to veto over the terms of which Britain can leave the EU. Other news came with Fitch affirming the UK AA with a negative outlook. Also, 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut output by 558,000bpd, of which Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd - Non-OPEC counties join the cartel in output cut GBP/USD recently failed 1.2778 and close to the 100 day ma. To the downside, there is room to the 1.2424 two month uptrend on a break below 1.2530/50 local support area and a subsequent sell-off below the 1.25 handle. quotThis remains the break down point to the 1.2090/85 October 11 and 25 lows, quot suggested analysts at Commerzbank, adding, quotIntraday rallies are likely to now struggle circa 1.2665.Initial support lies at 1.2302/1.2285.quot 00:10 Prospects of another large economic stimulus package - Nomura Analysts at Nomura explained that the economic stimulus package approved by the Cabinet in August totaled yen28trn, more than had been expected. quotThe reasons for the size of the package were probably the strength of the yen in the first half of 2016 and serious concerns about the impact of Brexit on financial markets and the economy. We expect the economy to begin to slow gradually in FY17 H2 as the impact of existing economic stimulus packages begins to fade. However, with the economy unlikely to slow to below its potential growth rate, we do not expect a large economic stimulus package in FY17.quot quotThat said, in view of the many imponderables, we cannot rule out the possibility that concerns similar to those of this summer may reappear. In our view, such concerns are more likely to be triggered by developments overseas than in Japan. If President-elect Trump39s trade policies turn out to be protectionist, we see a risk that the new administration could favor a weaker dollar and try to pressurize countries with a trade surplus into stimulating domestic demand. Also, we will need to monitor US behavior at G7 and G20 meetings as well as look out for the US Treasury39s Semiannual Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. Similarly, election victories for protectionist political parties in Europe could trigger the risk-off trade (ie, flows into yen and out of stock markets), which could have a negative knock-on effect on the Japanese economy via its impact on financial markets. If such risks materialized, the likelihood of fiscal expansion would increase. quot Data source: FX Street Disclaimer :This material is provided by FXStreet as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nada nesta comunicação contém, ou deve ser considerado como contendo, um conselho de investimento ou uma recomendação de investimento ou uma solicitação com a finalidade de comprar ou vender qualquer instrumento financeiro. Todas as informações fornecidas são coletadas de fontes respeitáveis e qualquer informação contendo uma indicação de desempenho passado não é uma garantia ou um indicador confiável de desempenho futuro. Os utilizadores reconhecem que qualquer investimento em produtos de FX e CFDs é caracterizado por um certo grau de incerteza e que qualquer investimento desta natureza envolve um elevado nível de risco pelo qual os utilizadores são os únicos responsáveis e responsáveis. Não assumimos qualquer responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento realizado com base nas informações aqui apresentadas. Legal: HotForex is a registered brand name of HF Markets (Europe) Ltd a Cypriot Investment Firm (CIF) under number HE 277582. Regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 183/12. A HotForex é regida pela Directiva sobre Mercados de Instrumentos Financeiros (MiFID) da União Europeia. O website hfeu é operado pela HF Markets (Europe) Ltd. Aviso de Risco: A negociação de produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores, pois eles trazem um alto grau de risco para seu capital. Certifique-se de que compreende completamente os riscos envolvidos, tendo em conta os seus objectivos de investimento e o nível de experiência, antes da negociação e, se necessário, procure aconselhamento independente. Leia a divulgação completa do risco. A HotForex não aceita clientes dos Estados Unidos, Bélgica, Irã, Sudão, Síria e Coréia do Norte. Copyright 2016 - Todos os Direitos Reservados Aviso de Risco: A negociação de produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores, pois eles possuem um alto grau de risco para seu capital. Leia a divulgação completa do risco. Aviso de risco: Lembre-se de Forex e CFDs são produtos alavancados e pode resultar na perda de todo o capital investido. Considere nossa Divulgação de Riscos.
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